Preseason Polls! AP Top 25, Coaches Poll… What about the Dirt Poll?

           The start of college football season is less than two weeks away, anyone excited? I know we are here in Oregon – with a little someone named LSU for our first game. There are other intriguing matchups early on in the year as well, Oklahoma versus Florida State and Georgia versus Boise State come to mind. With the season so close to kick off, it’s fitting we’re getting our first glimpse at the (meaningless) preseason polls; both from the AP and the coaches. So I figured, what the heck – here is the Dirt’s preseason Top 25. I’ll show you the AP and Coaches poll so you can see where my opinion differs, to see if you agree or disagree with the Dirt.

An important reminder, the last team to begin the season ranked #1 in preseason polls to win a national title was 2004 USC, though that trophy was taken away (cough, Reggie Bush, cough). So take these rankings with a grain of salt, and at the end of the year I’ll look back to compare to see who knew what in the world they were talking about. Enjoy!

Rank	The Dirt Poll	AP Top 25	Coaches Poll
#1	Alabama	Oklahoma  (36)	Oklahoma (42)
#2	Oregon	Alabama (17)	Alabama (13)
#3	LSU	Oregon (2)	Oregon (2)
#4	Oklahoma	LSU (1)	LSU (2)
#5	Stanford	Boise State (2)	Florida State
#6	Wisconsin	Florida State	Stanford
#7	South Carolina	Stanford	Boise State
#8	Florida State	Texas A+M	Oklahoma State
#9	Texas A+M	Oklahoma State	Texas A+M
#10	Virginia Tech	Nebraska	Wisconsin
#11	Nebraska	Wisconsin	Nebraska
#12	Arkansas	South Carolina	South Carolina
#13	Oklahoma State	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech
#14	Boise State	TCU	Arkansas
#15	West Virginia	Arkansas	TCU
#16	Mississippi State	Notre Dame	Ohio State
#17	Notre Dame	Michigan State	Michigan State
#18	USC	Ohio State	Notre Dame
#19	Georgia	Georgia	Auburn
#20	Arizona State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State
#21	Michigan State	Missouri	Missouri
#22	Florida	Florida	Georgia
#23	Utah	Auburn	Florida
#24	Auburn	West Virginia	Texas
#25	Texas	USC	Penn State
#* 26	Missouri	Texas	Arizona State
#* 27	Penn State	Penn State	West Virginia
#* 28	Ohio State	Arizona State	Utah

            Some notes: Everyone and their mother seems to believe Oklahoma is the clear cut preseason #1 team going into the season, but they have the undesirable stench of overrated to me. In my opinion, the SEC has won 5 consecutive National Titles; so shouldn’t the SEC front-runner be preseason #1? That is what caused me to jump Alabama to #1. Sliding Oregon and LSU up a spot each was easy; and of course a lot will be determined after their September 3^rd showdown in Dallas. As for Oklahoma, they can make a statement to the Dirt Poll if they win at Florida State early in the year. I also slid Stanford up a few slots to round out the top 5; heck, with Andrew Luck, how can the Cardinal not be in the top 5?

            Wisconsin is another team that intrigues me, the transferring of Russell Wilson could be huge and I think the Big 10 is up for grabs now that Ohio State has been diminished greatly by off-field incidents. South Carolina goes in that category as well, which is why I climbed them up my poll. Freshman sensation Marcus Lattimore returns for his sophomore season (watch out for his Heisman talk as the year goes along) and he is joined by veteran QB Stephen Garcia and #1 overall recruit Jadaveon Clowney; which equals the Gamecocks having a big year. I dropped Florida State a peg or two, while I kept Texas A+M about the same. To round out the top 10, I pushed Virginia Tech up; with Miami out of the picture in the ACC, the Hokies are a team you can never forget about.

            Nebraska should have a good year in their inaugural Big 10 season; and look for Arkansas to pick up right where Ryan Mallet left them, though I don’t expect a return to a BCS game. Both Oklahoma State and Boise State also seem overrated to me, but if the Broncos are able to handle Georgia early on – don’t be surprised if we have to listen to the BCS busters talk all season long. West Virginia rounds out my top 15, and they’re another team I think will surprise people this year. The Big East is dreadful (hint, Connecticut to the Fiesta Bowl last season); so I think they could easily go 9-3, or 10-2.

            Mississippi State is one of those SEC teams who play four ‘Baylor School for the Blind’ teams in their preseason games, so a 4-4 or 5-3 conference record gives them 8 or 9 wins. I’m not too sure about Notre Dame; it seems people yearn to rank them back in the Top 25 every season. But a strong finish and whipping of Miami in the Sun Bowl last season has me intrigued. USC is a team that should be in everyone’s Top 25; they will be playing in the weak Pac 12 South division and with Matt Barkley back for his 3^rd year as a starter, they can win a lot of games this year (and not go to a bowl game, of course). Georgia always has stockpiled talent, but can never seem to put the pieces together. Aaron Murray showed promise last year at QB, and if they can get over losing A.J. Green they could have a good year. Arizona State finalizes my top 20 and I think they are the default winners of the Pac 12 South this year. An early on matchup with Wisconsin has Sun Devil fans licking their fingers.

            Michigan State, Florida, Utah, Auburn and Texas are the final teams to make the top 25 cut in the Dirt Poll. The Spartans had a WAY overrated season last year (which showed in a 50 point loss to Alabama in the Outback bowl). It will be interesting to see how Florida will perform under new head coach Will Muschamp; and to see if they can find a QB who could fill one of Tim Tebow’s shoes. Utah will get their first shot in a new, tougher conference. Returning QB Jordan Wynn has a lot of talent, so stay tuned to see if they can handle playing an actual game every Saturday. I couldn’t leave Auburn out of the top 25, heck they won the National Title last year. But losing their ‘Superman’ Cam Newton will be tough; extremely tough, to cope with.  And finally, what would a preseason poll be without Texas? They debut their own national TV network this fall, and something is telling me Mack Browns’ Longhorns won’t miss another bowl game this season.

            Just missing the cut were Missouri, Penn State and Ohio State. Missouri will have to deal with losing golden haired, golden armed Blaine Gabbert; which won’t be easy. I had to stick Penn State in there, how can you not mention the 190 year old Joe Pa’s team? And last but certainly not least, Ohio State. Did anyone else spit up their cheerios when they saw both the coaches and AP put the Buckeyes in their top 20? Are you kidding me? I had to stick them at #28 just so I could rant a little. No Terrelle Pryor (any Duck fans thanking their lucky stars he didn’t come to Oregon?), a freshman and interim head coach, and the mood around the program stinking like garbage? I say – no sweater vest roaming the sideline, no more than 8 wins this year; at best!

            Well that wraps it up, hope you enjoyed the first ever Dirt preseason poll; and hope you didn’t think, ‘what an idiot’ when you peeped the rankings. Should be an exciting, dramatic and entertaining college football season; and I know I can’t wait until it starts! What about you? 

MLB Second Half Preview: American League – Division, Wildcard Winners, Playoff Predictions

            With the All-Star game now in the review mirror, MLB teams are gearing up for the final push towards the playoffs. In this blog, I will dissect the remaining schedules for each of the playoff contenders from every division, predict their final wins and losses, and ultimately predict the division winners and playoff series.

            So, I now present you with each division race, the winner, and wild card winner. Starting with the American League West, Central, and then East.

American League West

1.      LA Angles of Anaheim (59-50) 2.0GB  Finish: 35-18 = 94-68

·         Home: 28-23

·         Away: 31-27

·         Last 10: 6-4

The LA Angles are a team that seems to be in the hunt for October year in and year out, with this season being no different. They are currently 2.0 games behind the Rangers, but in baseball a 2 game lead can disappear in an instant. Their pitching at times can be dominant; Jared Weaver (starter for American League All-star team) and I don’t think anyone missed Ervin Santana’s no hitter last week. If the Angels can get some production from aging superstars Tori Hunter and Vernon Wells, watch out for them to catch fire over the last 2 months.

The Angles have 53 games remaining on their schedule, and will need to outperform the Rangers in order to make up their 2.0 game deficit. The schedule is on their side, however, with only 18 of their final 53 games against playoff contenders. Those series include a road trip to New York and home series against the White Sox and Yankees. Most importantly, they face the Rangers 10 more times in the last 2 months, 7 of which are at home. The final series of their season is a 3 game set in Anaheim against the Rangers, which most likely will decide the division winner.

I am predicting the Angels will finish 35-18 over their final 53 games, putting them at 94-68. That would be one game better than I have the Rangers finishing, mostly because of the difficult schedule that remains for Texas. But again, it will come down to the wire and mostly depend on how they fair in those 10 games against Texas.

2.      Texas Rangers (61-48) Finish: 32-21 = 93-69

·         Home: 35-21

·         Away: 26-27

·         Last 10: 5-5

The Texas Rangers, last year’s American League champion and World Series runner up are at it again this year with a 2.0 game lead in the American League West. They have one of the most powerful offenses in all of baseball with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler in their lineup, but the pitching has struggled this season with the departure of Cliff Lee to free agency. Picking up reliever Mike Adams from the Padres before the trade deadline should help the bullpen, however.

The Rangers have 53 games remaining on their schedule, but it will be a tough road. Of those 53 Games, 29 come against teams in the American League playoff hunt. Those series include; road trips to Detroit, Chicago and Boston with home series against Cleveland (twice) and Boston. Most importantly though, the Rangers face the Angels 10 more times this season, unfortunately for them, 7 of those 10 games are in Anaheim, including the final 3 games of the season.

The race for the division will come down to the wire, and I think even to the final series of the season. Their struggles this year away from home (note a losing record away from the Ballpark in Arlington) will hurt them tremendously in my opinion. I am picking the Rangers to finish 32-21 over their final 53 games, putting them at 93-69. It will be close, but if the Angles can stay within a game or two, the final 3 game series in Anaheim could decide the winner.

American League Central

1.      Detroit Tigers (57-51) Finish: 33-21 = 90-72

·         Home: 31-24

·         Away: 26-27

·         Last 10: 5-5

The Detroit Tigers are having another great season for the Motor City, powered by CY Young candidate Justin Verlander and MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera. A powerful lineup leads the offense, and the recent addition of Doug Fister could do wonders to sure up their starting rotation. The Tigers are excellent at home this season, which will play a key role down the stretch. They currently hold a 2.5 game lead over the surprise Indians and 4.0 game lead on the White Sox.

The Tigers have 54 games remaining on their schedule, with only 21 of those coming against teams in the playoff hunt. Of those tough series remaining, the Tigers will have to travel to Cleveland (twice) and Chicago; but going in their favor is the fact that they have home series against Texas, Cleveland (twice) and Chicago. Only 9 of those 21 games against playoff hopefuls are on the road for Detroit.

I am picking the Tigers to finish the season 33-21, with a rather easy schedule ahead, putting them at 90-72 to finish the year. Though they will be challenged in the division by Cleveland and Chicago (12 games remaining against the Indians, 6 against the White Sox) they are definitely the team to beat in the American League Central. If all goes accordingly, the Tigers should be atop the division at the end of the season.

2.      Chicago White Sox (52-54) 4.0 GB Finish: 33-23 = 85-77

·         Home: 24-28

·         Away: 28-26

·         Last 10: 5-5

The Chicago White Sox have had an up and down season under flamboyant manager Ozzie Guillen, and I don’t expect things to change much over the final 2 months. They’ve struggled with pitching, as well as had a major bust of a season from Adam Dunn, though veteran Paul Konerko has been a bright spot. I see the trade of Edwin Jackson somewhat as a waving of the white flag, but only time will tell. They are currently 4.0 games back of Detroit and a 1.5 games back of Cleveland, and will need not only to catch fire, but for the Tigers to falter if they want a chance at playing in October.

The White Sox have 56 games remaining this season, 26 of which will come against playoff contenders. Of those series, the White Sox will have to travel to Anaheim, Detroit and Cleveland; and will have home series against the Yankees, Indians (twice) Rangers and Tigers. Luckily for Ozzie and his crew, only 9 of their 26 remaining games against contenders will be on the road. However, they White Sox have a better road record than home record this season.

I am picking the White Sox to finish their final 56 games 33-23, if they take advantage of all the home games; and finish at 85-77. That would leave them 5.0 games behind the Tigers, but I do believe they will be able to catch the young and inexperienced Indians.

3.      Cleveland Indians (53-52) 2.5 GB Finish: 29-28 = 82-80

·         Home: 29-24

·         Away: 24-28

·         Last 10: 2-8

The Cleveland Indians, along with the Pittsburgh Pirates, have been one of the major surprises this year in baseball. If anyone would have told you they’d be over .500 at this point in the season and only 2.5 games out of first place, you probably would have laughed. But their season this year has been no laughing matter. Thanks to young talent all over the field, and the veteran presence of Travis Hafner, the Indians have managed to stick around in the playoff hunt. They have been struggling of late, losing 8 of their last 10 games; but they think they got their star pitcher in a deal that brought the Rockies Ubaldo Jimenez to town. I am a skeptic of Jimenez, who notoriously started out last season undefeated before faltering late, and he has struggled mightily this year with inconsistency. In the end, I don’t think he will be able to lift them into October.

The Indians have 57 games remaining and unfortunately for them, 33 of those games come against playoff contenders. That’s 9 more than the White Sox have, who they lead by a game and a half, and 12 more than the Tigers who they trail by 2.5 games. Of those games, the Indians will have to travel to Boston, Texas (twice), Chicago (twice) and Detroit (twice); all tough places to win on the road. And they will have home series against the Tigers (twice) and White Sox. The main reason I am picking them to fall out of contention, 23 of those 33 games against contenders will be on the road.

It’s been a great year for the Indians, who are a game over .500, but it looks like this won’t be their year. I am picking them to stay consistent (which possibly may not happen) and finish the year 29-28, putting them at 82-80. That finish would leave them 3.0 games behind Chicago, and 10.0 games back of Detroit. They’ve been a wonderful story for baseball and for all of sports after the horrible Lebron James situation the city went through, but it appears they’ll have to wait another year for a shot at October. Great young talent is enough to lift a city out of a rut though.

American League East

1.      Boston Red Sox (66-40) Finish: 36-20 = 102-60

·         Home: 33-19

·         Away: 33-21

·         Last 10: 7-3

The team many picked at the start of the season to win it all, the Boston Red Sox have not disappointed this year. Posting the best record in baseball up to this point, things look to only be getting better for the Sox. Powered by first year guys Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, the offense has been untamable this year, and the pitching has been pretty darn good itself. A deadline deal bringing Erik Bedard to Boston should help sure up the rotation, especially with the lingering questions of Clay Bucholtz’s back. As it seems to be every year in the American League East, the Red Sox are in a tight battle for first with the Yankees, currently leading the division by 2.0 games.

The Red Sox have 56 games left on their schedule, with a manageable 20 of them coming against playoff contenders. Of those games, the Sox will have road series in Texas and New York, with home series against the Yankees (twice), Indians and Rangers. Of those 20 games, 14 of them will be played at Fenway.

I expect the Red Sox to finish strong, going 36-20 over their final 56 contests, leaving them at 102-60 at the end of the season. If I pick correctly, that would put them 1.0 game ahead of the hated Yankees, but with 9 games remaining against their rival from the Bronx, anything can happen. One thing is for certain, the Red Sox will be playing post season baseball this year.

2.      New York Yankees (64-42) 2.0 GB Finish: 37-19 = 101-61

·         Home: 37-22

·         Away: 27-20

·         Last 10: 7-3

The Yankees are in the mix it appears every season, and this year it’s been no different. Led by CY Young candidate C.C Sabathia and a powerful lineup, the Yankees have slugged their way through injuries to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The only big question remaining is how their pitching will hold up, but with CC at the top of the rotation they should be just fine. Currently 2.0 games behind the Red Sox, the two rivals will duke it out over the next 2 months to decide who the American League East champion will be, and who the Wild Card team will be.

The Yankees, like the Red Sox, have 56 games remaining on their schedule; but only 19 are against playoff contenders. Of those games, the Yankees will have to travel to Chicago, Anaheim and Boston (twice), and will have home series against the Angels and Red Sox. The 9 games remaining against their Boston rival will decide the division, but the advantage swings in favor of the Red Sox with 6 of those games at Fenway.

The Yankees will make the playoffs, it just depends how. Will they win the division or be the wild card team is the only question that remains. I am picking the Yankees to finish 37-19, putting them at 101-61; 1.0 game behind the Red Sox. Things will definitely be interesting, as the winner of the division will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Wild Card Race

1.      New York Yankees (64-42) – 101-61

2.      Texas Rangers (61-48) 3.0 GB  – 93-69 (8.0 GB)

3.      Chicago White Sox (52-54) 12.0 GB  – 85-77 (16.0 GB)

4.      Cleveland Indians (53-52) 11.0 GB  – 82-80 (19.0 GB)

Playoff Picture

Wild Card Round:

#1 Boston Red Sox over #3 Detroit Tigers

#4 New York Yankees over #2 Anaheim Angels

American League Championship Series:

#4 New York Yankees over #1 Boston Red Sox

American League Champion: New York Yankees

MLB Second Half Preview: National League

With the All-Star game now in the review mirror, MLB teams are gearing up for the final push towards the playoffs. In this blog, I will dissect the remaining schedules for each of the playoff contenders from every division, predict their final wins and losses, and ultimately predict the division winners and playoff series. Obviously, things could change drastically if teams make big trades; Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, B.J Upton, Heath Bell and Ubaldo Jimenez are just a few of the names on the trading block. But I remain confident no matter what deals are made, no one team will make or not make the playoffs due to a trade.

            So, I now present you with each division race, the winner, and wild card winner from each division. Starting with the National League West, Central, and then East.

National League West

1.      San Francisco Giants (59-43) Finish: 38-22 = 97-65

·         Home: 32-18

·         Away: 27-25

·         Last 10: 7-3

The Giants are off to their best start since the 2003-2004 season and entered the All-Star break with the NL West lead for the first time since that season. With their dominant pitching; second best ERA for both their starting pitchers and bullpen, and the best overall team ERA, the Giants are one big bat away from putting everyone else in the division in their review mirror. They’ve surprised many skeptics and overcame season ending injuries to Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez; and survived horrible seasons from key 2010 contributors Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Cody Ross. The offense is hanging on by a thread, mostly thanks to a resurgent and skinny Pablo Sandoval.  

The Giants are in the midst of a tough stretch of games, after taking two out of three from the NL Central leading Milwaukie Brewers, the Giants now head to Philadelphia for three, then to Cincinnati for three, then return home for consecutive series against the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Pirates. It doesn’t end there, as the Giants still have road series against the Braves and Diamondbacks again, as well as a home series left against the D’backs. In total, they have 8 series remaining against playoff contenders, meaning 26 of their final 60 games will be against those teams.

The Giants are a very solid home team, with the third best home record in the National League behind only the Phillies and the Brewers. Expect the Giants to stay hot, who are 7-3 in their first 10 games since the break, and to finish their last 60 games 38-22. That record puts them at 97-65 and atop the NL West at the end of the season.

2.      Arizona Diamondbacks (55-47) (4.5 GB) Finish: 34-26 = 89-73

·         Home: 29-23

·         Away: 26-24

·         Last 10: 6-4

The Diamondbacks have been one of the most surprising teams of the season, only 4.5 games back of the defending World Series Champion Giants. Young players like Justin Upton and Chris Young along with a solid pitching staff have led the D’backs this season.

Their remaining schedule is forgiving, with only six remaining series against playoff contenders. Road trips to Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Francisco (twice); combined with home series against the Pirates and Giants.   Meaning of their 60 remaining games, only 18 are against playoff teams. One things going against the D’backs, however, is that the majority of those difficult remaining games are on the road.

Look for the Diamondbacks to finish the season surprisingly strong with an easy schedule, going 34-26 over their last 60 games and finishing 89-73; far more impressive than anyone would have thought. Though it will be tough to take down the defending champion Giants, they will have their chance as they play them 9 more times this season (6 in San Francisco).

National League Central

1.      St. Louis Cardinals (53-48) Finish: 37-24 = 90-72

·         Home: 25-21

·         Away: 28-27

·         Last 10: 5-5

The St. Louis Cardinals are as talented offensively as any other team in baseball. With a healthy Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday in the middle of their lineup, they have the bats that no pitching staff would want to face in the post season. Currently in a three-way tie for first place in the NL Central with the Brewers and Pirates, the Cardinals will face playoff contenders in 29 of the last 61 games.

The matchups with those playoff contenders will be series at Milwaukie (twice), at Pittsburg (twice), and at Philadelphia with home series against the Pirates, Reds, Brewers and Braves. The rest of the season will be tough, especially going to Milwaukie to face the Brewers twice, who own the best home record in the National League; as those series could easily decide the winner of the division.

In their last 61 games, look for the Cardinals to find some consistency on the mound, maybe make a trade before the deadline, and finish 37-24; giving them a final record of 90-72. But when you have four teams within 3 games of each other (Cards’, Brewers, Pirates and Reds), making it the only division with four teams in the hunt, it could end up in a number of different scenarios. And there’s always the possibility of it coming down to a one game play-off, ala, Padres versus Rockies via 2007. 

2.      Milwaukie Brewers (54-49) Finish: 35-24 = 89-73

·         Home: 33-14

·         Away: 21-35

·         Last 10: 5-5

The Brewers, much like the Cardinals, have an offensive lineup that is deeply feared by the rest of the league. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are two of the best power hitters in all of baseball, and they have propelled the Brewers to another solid season. However, lack of consistent pitching and inability to win games away from Miller Park has hurt them all season. Zach Greinke has been just about a bust, despite his record his ERA is horrendous, he just happens to be pitching with a loaded offense behind him.

The Brewers have 59 games remaining this season, 29 of which are against playoff contenders. They have to go to St. Louis (twice), to Pittsburgh and to Cincinnati but get to face the Cardinals (twice), Pirates (twice) and the Phillies at home. Of their nine series against playoff contenders remaining, five of them are at home which could play a huge role in whether or not they win the division. And they have 12 games left to play against the Cardinals, and those games will likely decide the winner of the division.

Expect the Brewers to continue the same trends for the rest of the year; winning at home, struggling on the road and scoring a lot of runs on their way to a 35-24 record of their last 59 games. I have them finishing 89-73, one behind St. Louis, but it could easily go either way. And don’t be surprised if there’s a game 163 to decide the division winner.

3.      Pittsburgh Pirates (52-47) Finish: 36-27 = 88-74

·         Home: 26-25

·         Away: 26-22

·         Last 10: 6-4

There is no better story in all of baseball this year than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are in contention for the NL Central crown for the first time since 1992, and the Barry Bonds era. Unfortunately, it looks like the Pirates will be unable to break through the glass ceiling and make the postseason this year. With 69 remaining games remaining, 39 of them come against teams in the playoff hunt; including 26 against division foes.

In those pivotal series, the Pirates are still faced with tough road tests at Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona, Milwaukie (twice) and St. Louis; as well as home series against the Cardinals (twice), Reds (twice) and Brewers. The schedule does not shape up for them to finish strong, with 23 of those 39 games on the road.

I optimistically have the Pirates finishing their last 63 games at 36-27, which would leave them at 88-74 and 2.0 games back of division winner St. Louis. That final record places very high expectations on the Pirates, who are in their first pennant chase in nearly two decades. It’s been a great year for the Bucs’, but it appears they will fall just short. With young talent all over there farm system and an All-Star in Andrew McCutchen roaming center field, things are finally looking up in Pittsburgh.

4.      Cincinnati Reds (50-52) (3.0 GB) Finish: 34-27 = 84-78

·         Home: 27-23

·         Away: 23-28

·         Last 10: 5-5

Last season’s NL Central champion Reds have had an up down season, recently winning back to back games for the first time in nearly a month. They have a tremendous offense with Joey Votto hitting in the middle of the order, and young flame thrower out of the bullpen Aroldis Chapman seems to have found his groove. However, they’ve been held back by inconsistency and have struggled to win games away from home.

The Reds are 3.0 games back currently behind the three-way tie for first in the division, but they have one thing going in their favor the rest of the way out. Of their final 61 games, only 19 come against teams in playoff contention. They have home series against the Giants, Phillies and Brewers; and have to travel to Pittsburgh (twice) and St. Louis. For this reason, I would not be shocked at all to see the Reds catch fire playing below average talent the rest of the way out; especially when teams out of races go through September call-ups and start inserting prospects into their everyday lineups.

However, I am hesitant to pick them to win the division. I would not be surprised at all if they end up catching one of the three teams ahead of them, or even finishing second; but with the inconsistency of their pitching staff, it’s hard to do. Therefore, I see the Reds finishing 34-27 over their last 61 games, and ending up 84-78, a few games behind the other teams. But if they can figure out how to string together a few wins, or get hot for a few weeks, don’t be surprised to see the Reds in the thick of the race come the end of September.

National League East

1.      Philadelphia Phillies (64-37) Finish: 35-26 = 99-63

·         Home: 37-16

·         Away: 27-21

·         Last 10: 7-3

The Phillies have been as strong of team as everyone expected coming into the season, despite injuries to Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt. But with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in their starting rotation, did anyone expect anything less? Getting everyone back and healthy for the stretch run will only make them stronger.

The Phillies own the second best home record in the entire National League (more wins, but more losses than the Brewers) and have been just as solid on the road. The stretch run will not be easy though, with 27 of their final 61 games coming against playoff contenders. Of those final games, they face three tough 4 game-series on the road, at San Francisco, Cincinnati and Milwaukie; also ending their season with a three game trip to Atlanta. They do face the Pirates, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals at home and are about to begin a huge three game set at home against the defending Champion Giants this week.

I expect the Phillies to get through that tough stretch, going 35-26 to finish at 99-63 which would give them the best record in the National League heading into the postseason. Though this week’s series against the Giants, and their four-game trip to San Francisco in early August are going to be huge in deciding the top playoff seed. Expect them to run away from the Braves, and easily win the National League East.

2.      Atlanta Braves (59-44) (6.0 GB) Finish: 34-25 = 93-69

·         Home: 30-20

·         Away: 29-24

·         Last 10: 4-6

The Braves have suffered through and injury to Chipper Jones, horrible years for Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla to secure a spot a top the NL Wild Card standings. Mostly because of their dominant starting pitching and excellent relief pitching, which should only continue to improve the rest of the way especially if Derek Lowe can find his old form.

The Braves have an extremely easy schedule from here on out, with a road and home series coming against their division rival Phillies, a current four game set against the Pirates, a four game series at home against the Giants in August and a trip to St. Louis in September. In total, of their last 59 games only 16 are against playoff hopefuls.

However, the Braves have been inconsistent as of late, losing 6 of their last 10. But with such an easy schedule, it’s tough to not pencil them into the postseason. I expect the Braves to go 34-25 over their final 59 games, finishing at 93-69. That record will most likely be good enough to secure the wild card spot, though watch out for the Brewers to possibly catch them late in the year.

Wild Card Race

1.      Atlanta Braves (59-43) – 93-69

2.      Milwaukie Brewers (54-49) 5.5 GB – 89-73 (4.0 GB)

3.      Arizona Diamondbacks (55-47) 4.0 GB – 89-73 (4.0 GB)

4.      Pittsburgh Pirates (52-47) 6.5 GB – 88-74 (5.0 GB)

5.      Cincinnati Reds (50-51) 8.5 GB – 84-78 (9.0 GB)

Playoff Picture

Wild Card Round:

 #1 Philadelphia Phillies over #3 St. Louis Cardinals

#2 San Francisco Giants over #4 Atlanta Braves

National League Championship Series:

#2 San Francisco Giants over #1 Philadelphia Phillies  

National League Champion: San Francisco Giants