With the All-Star game now in the review mirror, MLB teams are gearing up for the final push towards the playoffs. In this blog, I will dissect the remaining schedules for each of the playoff contenders from every division, predict their final wins and losses, and ultimately predict the division winners and playoff series. Obviously, things could change drastically if teams make big trades; Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, B.J Upton, Heath Bell and Ubaldo Jimenez are just a few of the names on the trading block. But I remain confident no matter what deals are made, no one team will make or not make the playoffs due to a trade.
So, I now present you with each division race, the winner, and wild card winner from each division. Starting with the National League West, Central, and then East.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants (59-43) Finish: 38-22 = 97-65
· Home: 32-18
· Away: 27-25
· Last 10: 7-3
The Giants are off to their best start since the 2003-2004 season and entered the All-Star break with the NL West lead for the first time since that season. With their dominant pitching; second best ERA for both their starting pitchers and bullpen, and the best overall team ERA, the Giants are one big bat away from putting everyone else in the division in their review mirror. They’ve surprised many skeptics and overcame season ending injuries to Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez; and survived horrible seasons from key 2010 contributors Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Cody Ross. The offense is hanging on by a thread, mostly thanks to a resurgent and skinny Pablo Sandoval.
The Giants are in the midst of a tough stretch of games, after taking two out of three from the NL Central leading Milwaukie Brewers, the Giants now head to Philadelphia for three, then to Cincinnati for three, then return home for consecutive series against the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Pirates. It doesn’t end there, as the Giants still have road series against the Braves and Diamondbacks again, as well as a home series left against the D’backs. In total, they have 8 series remaining against playoff contenders, meaning 26 of their final 60 games will be against those teams.
The Giants are a very solid home team, with the third best home record in the National League behind only the Phillies and the Brewers. Expect the Giants to stay hot, who are 7-3 in their first 10 games since the break, and to finish their last 60 games 38-22. That record puts them at 97-65 and atop the NL West at the end of the season.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (55-47) (4.5 GB) Finish: 34-26 = 89-73
· Home: 29-23
· Away: 26-24
· Last 10: 6-4
The Diamondbacks have been one of the most surprising teams of the season, only 4.5 games back of the defending World Series Champion Giants. Young players like Justin Upton and Chris Young along with a solid pitching staff have led the D’backs this season.
Their remaining schedule is forgiving, with only six remaining series against playoff contenders. Road trips to Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Francisco (twice); combined with home series against the Pirates and Giants. Meaning of their 60 remaining games, only 18 are against playoff teams. One things going against the D’backs, however, is that the majority of those difficult remaining games are on the road.
Look for the Diamondbacks to finish the season surprisingly strong with an easy schedule, going 34-26 over their last 60 games and finishing 89-73; far more impressive than anyone would have thought. Though it will be tough to take down the defending champion Giants, they will have their chance as they play them 9 more times this season (6 in San Francisco).
National League Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (53-48) Finish: 37-24 = 90-72
· Home: 25-21
· Away: 28-27
· Last 10: 5-5
The St. Louis Cardinals are as talented offensively as any other team in baseball. With a healthy Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday in the middle of their lineup, they have the bats that no pitching staff would want to face in the post season. Currently in a three-way tie for first place in the NL Central with the Brewers and Pirates, the Cardinals will face playoff contenders in 29 of the last 61 games.
The matchups with those playoff contenders will be series at Milwaukie (twice), at Pittsburg (twice), and at Philadelphia with home series against the Pirates, Reds, Brewers and Braves. The rest of the season will be tough, especially going to Milwaukie to face the Brewers twice, who own the best home record in the National League; as those series could easily decide the winner of the division.
In their last 61 games, look for the Cardinals to find some consistency on the mound, maybe make a trade before the deadline, and finish 37-24; giving them a final record of 90-72. But when you have four teams within 3 games of each other (Cards’, Brewers, Pirates and Reds), making it the only division with four teams in the hunt, it could end up in a number of different scenarios. And there’s always the possibility of it coming down to a one game play-off, ala, Padres versus Rockies via 2007.
2. Milwaukie Brewers (54-49) Finish: 35-24 = 89-73
· Home: 33-14
· Away: 21-35
· Last 10: 5-5
The Brewers, much like the Cardinals, have an offensive lineup that is deeply feared by the rest of the league. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are two of the best power hitters in all of baseball, and they have propelled the Brewers to another solid season. However, lack of consistent pitching and inability to win games away from Miller Park has hurt them all season. Zach Greinke has been just about a bust, despite his record his ERA is horrendous, he just happens to be pitching with a loaded offense behind him.
The Brewers have 59 games remaining this season, 29 of which are against playoff contenders. They have to go to St. Louis (twice), to Pittsburgh and to Cincinnati but get to face the Cardinals (twice), Pirates (twice) and the Phillies at home. Of their nine series against playoff contenders remaining, five of them are at home which could play a huge role in whether or not they win the division. And they have 12 games left to play against the Cardinals, and those games will likely decide the winner of the division.
Expect the Brewers to continue the same trends for the rest of the year; winning at home, struggling on the road and scoring a lot of runs on their way to a 35-24 record of their last 59 games. I have them finishing 89-73, one behind St. Louis, but it could easily go either way. And don’t be surprised if there’s a game 163 to decide the division winner.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (52-47) Finish: 36-27 = 88-74
· Home: 26-25
· Away: 26-22
· Last 10: 6-4
There is no better story in all of baseball this year than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They are in contention for the NL Central crown for the first time since 1992, and the Barry Bonds era. Unfortunately, it looks like the Pirates will be unable to break through the glass ceiling and make the postseason this year. With 69 remaining games remaining, 39 of them come against teams in the playoff hunt; including 26 against division foes.
In those pivotal series, the Pirates are still faced with tough road tests at Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Arizona, Milwaukie (twice) and St. Louis; as well as home series against the Cardinals (twice), Reds (twice) and Brewers. The schedule does not shape up for them to finish strong, with 23 of those 39 games on the road.
I optimistically have the Pirates finishing their last 63 games at 36-27, which would leave them at 88-74 and 2.0 games back of division winner St. Louis. That final record places very high expectations on the Pirates, who are in their first pennant chase in nearly two decades. It’s been a great year for the Bucs’, but it appears they will fall just short. With young talent all over there farm system and an All-Star in Andrew McCutchen roaming center field, things are finally looking up in Pittsburgh.
4. Cincinnati Reds (50-52) (3.0 GB) Finish: 34-27 = 84-78
· Home: 27-23
· Away: 23-28
· Last 10: 5-5
Last season’s NL Central champion Reds have had an up down season, recently winning back to back games for the first time in nearly a month. They have a tremendous offense with Joey Votto hitting in the middle of the order, and young flame thrower out of the bullpen Aroldis Chapman seems to have found his groove. However, they’ve been held back by inconsistency and have struggled to win games away from home.
The Reds are 3.0 games back currently behind the three-way tie for first in the division, but they have one thing going in their favor the rest of the way out. Of their final 61 games, only 19 come against teams in playoff contention. They have home series against the Giants, Phillies and Brewers; and have to travel to Pittsburgh (twice) and St. Louis. For this reason, I would not be shocked at all to see the Reds catch fire playing below average talent the rest of the way out; especially when teams out of races go through September call-ups and start inserting prospects into their everyday lineups.
However, I am hesitant to pick them to win the division. I would not be surprised at all if they end up catching one of the three teams ahead of them, or even finishing second; but with the inconsistency of their pitching staff, it’s hard to do. Therefore, I see the Reds finishing 34-27 over their last 61 games, and ending up 84-78, a few games behind the other teams. But if they can figure out how to string together a few wins, or get hot for a few weeks, don’t be surprised to see the Reds in the thick of the race come the end of September.
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (64-37) Finish: 35-26 = 99-63
· Home: 37-16
· Away: 27-21
· Last 10: 7-3
The Phillies have been as strong of team as everyone expected coming into the season, despite injuries to Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt. But with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in their starting rotation, did anyone expect anything less? Getting everyone back and healthy for the stretch run will only make them stronger.
The Phillies own the second best home record in the entire National League (more wins, but more losses than the Brewers) and have been just as solid on the road. The stretch run will not be easy though, with 27 of their final 61 games coming against playoff contenders. Of those final games, they face three tough 4 game-series on the road, at San Francisco, Cincinnati and Milwaukie; also ending their season with a three game trip to Atlanta. They do face the Pirates, Diamondbacks, Braves, Cardinals at home and are about to begin a huge three game set at home against the defending Champion Giants this week.
I expect the Phillies to get through that tough stretch, going 35-26 to finish at 99-63 which would give them the best record in the National League heading into the postseason. Though this week’s series against the Giants, and their four-game trip to San Francisco in early August are going to be huge in deciding the top playoff seed. Expect them to run away from the Braves, and easily win the National League East.
2. Atlanta Braves (59-44) (6.0 GB) Finish: 34-25 = 93-69
· Home: 30-20
· Away: 29-24
· Last 10: 4-6
The Braves have suffered through and injury to Chipper Jones, horrible years for Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla to secure a spot a top the NL Wild Card standings. Mostly because of their dominant starting pitching and excellent relief pitching, which should only continue to improve the rest of the way especially if Derek Lowe can find his old form.
The Braves have an extremely easy schedule from here on out, with a road and home series coming against their division rival Phillies, a current four game set against the Pirates, a four game series at home against the Giants in August and a trip to St. Louis in September. In total, of their last 59 games only 16 are against playoff hopefuls.
However, the Braves have been inconsistent as of late, losing 6 of their last 10. But with such an easy schedule, it’s tough to not pencil them into the postseason. I expect the Braves to go 34-25 over their final 59 games, finishing at 93-69. That record will most likely be good enough to secure the wild card spot, though watch out for the Brewers to possibly catch them late in the year.
Wild Card Race
1. Atlanta Braves (59-43) – 93-69
2. Milwaukie Brewers (54-49) 5.5 GB – 89-73 (4.0 GB)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (55-47) 4.0 GB – 89-73 (4.0 GB)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (52-47) 6.5 GB – 88-74 (5.0 GB)
5. Cincinnati Reds (50-51) 8.5 GB – 84-78 (9.0 GB)
Playoff Picture
Wild Card Round:
#1 Philadelphia Phillies over #3 St. Louis Cardinals
#2 San Francisco Giants over #4 Atlanta Braves
National League Championship Series:
#2 San Francisco Giants over #1 Philadelphia Phillies
National League Champion: San Francisco Giants
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