The Dirt: August 2011

Monday, August 29, 2011

Conference By Conference Preview: Big 12

With less than a week to go now before the college football season kicks off, it’s time for The Dirt to make some predictions. Beginning with conference standings and conference winners, I’ll take a look at all six BCS conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC). Next up, the Big 12:

Big 12

· Preseason Top 25 Teams

AP Poll Dirt Poll

1. Oklahoma 4. Oklahoma

8. Texas A+M 9. Texas A+M

9. Oklahoma State 13. Oklahoma State

21. Missouri 25. Texas

· Predicted Finish

1. Texas A+M 10-2 (8-1)

2. Oklahoma 10-2 (7-2)

3. Texas 9-3 (6-3)

4. Oklahoma State 8-4 (6-3)

5. Baylor 8-4 (5-4)

6. Missouri 7-5 (5-4)

7. Kansas State 6-6 (3-6)

8. Texas Tech 5-7 (3-6)

9. Iowa State 4-8 (2-7)

10. Kansas 3-9 (1-7)

· Bowl Teams: (7)

o Texas A+M

o Oklahoma

o Texas

o Oklahoma State

o Baylor

o Missouri

o Kansas State

· Big 12 Champion: Texas A+M Aggies

· Key Games

o 9/17: #6 Florida State Vs #1 Oklahoma

o 9/24 #8 Texas A+M Vs #9 Oklahoma State

o 11/5: #1 Oklahoma Vs #8 Texas A+M

o 12/3: #9 Oklahoma State Vs #1 Oklahoma

o 10/8: Texas Vs #1 Oklahoma

o 9/2: Baylor Vs #14 TCU

o 11/24: #8 Texas A+M Vs Texas

· Big 12 Summary:

Could be a big year for the Big 12, or should I say Big 10? Nebraska departed to the actual Big 10; while Colorado left for the new Pac 12, so who’s next? Well, recent news seems that it will be Texas A+M, with reports claiming they’re on their way to the SEC. So let’s begin with those Aggies, who I think will win the conference this year. Oklahoma may be the sexy #1 preseason pick, but Texas A+M seems like the best team to me. With ex-Green Bay Packer head coach Mike Sherman at the helm, they made a large step in the right direction last year – and I think this year they’ll take the next step. Though they will have to play at Oklahoma, the rest of their tough games will come at home.

Oklahoma will most likely finish in one of the top two spots, but everyone will bring their ‘A’ game against the preseason favorite Sooners. Landry Jones is a stud behind center, but the loss of DeMarco Murray will be a big one. Next in line, hopefully not surprisingly, is Texas. Does anyone think the Longhorns will finish below .500 again? I hope not. Oklahoma State and Missouri are both ranked in preseason Top 25 polls, but have the stench of overrated to me.

Baylor could be a surprise, Mr. Everything quarterback Robert Griffin is sure fun to watch. Look for them to have an unexpected season, winning 8 games. Kansas State should limp into a bowl game, and Texas Tech could also challenge to win 6 games. As for Iowa State and Kansas, better luck next year.

A big story line this season for the Big 12 will be an increase in conference games. They will step into Pac 10 (now Pac 12) territory as the only other conference to play 9 conference games in a season. Losing the chance to play one more patsy in nonconference play will hurt the lower teams, as will take a 3-0 out of conference record and 3 conference wins to make a bowl game.

Texas A+M is my pick to win the Big 12, though Oklahoma can easily challenge for the conference title. Both should win 10 games, and the team that finishes second could have a shot at an at-large BCS bid.

Conference By Conference Preview: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

ACC

· Preseason Top 25 Teams

AP Poll Dirt Poll

6. Florida State 8. Florida State

13. Virginia Tech 10. Virginia Tech

· Predicted Finish

Atlantic Division Coastal Division

1. Florida State 10-2 (7-1) 1. Virginia Tech 11-1 (7-1)

2. Maryland 8-4 (6-2) 2. Georgia Tech 7-5 (4-4)

3. Clemson 8-4 (5-3) 3. North Carolina 5-7 (3-5)

4. Boston College 6-6 (4-4) 4. Miami (FL) 5-7 (3-5)

5. North Carolina State 5-7 (3-5) 5. Duke 5-7 (2-6)

6. Wake Forrest 2-9 (1-7) 6. Virginia 4-8 (1-7)

· Bowl Teams: (6)

o Florida State

o Virginia Tech

o Maryland

o Clemson

o Georgia Tech

o Boston College

· ACC Championship Game

§ Florida State over Virginia Tech

· ACC Champion: Florida State Seminoles

· Key Games

o 9/17: #6 Florida State Vs #1 Oklahoma

o 11/10: Georgia Tech Vs #13 Virginia Tech

o 9/17: Maryland Vs #24 West Virginia

o 9/24: Clemson Vs #6 Florida State

o 10/1: #13 Virginia Tech Vs Clemson

· ACC Summary:

The 2011 season is shaping up to be more exciting than any from recent memory for the ACC. With two teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll; Florida State and Virginia Tech, the conference boasts two legit National Title contenders. However, both teams need to replace NFL drafted Quarterbacks; Christian Ponder from Florida State and ‘human highlight’ reel Tyrod Taylor of Virginia Tech. For the Seminoles, E.J Manuel is expected to step in and take over right away; though an early season matchup with Oklahoma will be a good test. Besides for the Sooners, Florida State will also have to beat instate rival Florida. As for Virginia Tech, the Hokies don’t have a single team on their schedule that’s ranked in the preseason Top 25. That easily could equal an undefeated season, though I expect they drop at least one game.

The rest of the conference doesn’t quite look as stunning. Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Boston College are the second tier of teams the ACC has to offer, but none should win nine games. The bottom of the conference is also looking pretty bleak. North Carolina and Miami are going through coaching changes and off field issues; as the Hurricanes just had to suspend 11 of the current players. It will be interesting to see how those teams bounce back. North Carolina State, Wake Forrest, Duke and Virginia will bring up the ACC caboose, and will struggle to finish at .500.

The conference title game should be a good one, I’m predicting the two ranked teams finish where they are picked. Virginia Tech and Florida State will be a great showdown in Jacksonville; and I think E.J Manuel will be the difference sending the Seminoles back to a BCS game with an automatic berth. If Virginia Tech can finish with 11 wins and a conference title game loss, they could be in the running for an at-large bid themselves.

All in all, the ACC should be intriguing. If Florida State can get by Oklahoma; and if Virginia Tech can beat the teams they’re supposed to, each could be in the national title hunt come November. The rest of the conference, well, not so much.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Preseason Polls! AP Top 25, Coaches Poll… What about the Dirt Poll?

The start of college football season is less than two weeks away, anyone excited? I know we are here in Oregon – with a little someone named LSU for our first game. There are other intriguing matchups early on in the year as well, Oklahoma versus Florida State and Georgia versus Boise State come to mind. With the season so close to kick off, it’s fitting we’re getting our first glimpse at the (meaningless) preseason polls; both from the AP and the coaches. So I figured, what the heck – here is the Dirt’s preseason Top 25. I’ll show you the AP and Coaches poll so you can see where my opinion differs, to see if you agree or disagree with the Dirt.

An important reminder, the last team to begin the season ranked #1 in preseason polls to win a national title was 2004 USC, though that trophy was taken away (cough, Reggie Bush, cough). So take these rankings with a grain of salt, and at the end of the year I’ll look back to compare to see who knew what in the world they were talking about. Enjoy!

Rank	The Dirt Poll	AP Top 25	Coaches Poll
#1	Alabama	Oklahoma (36)	Oklahoma (42)
#2	Oregon	Alabama (17)	Alabama (13)
#3	LSU	Oregon (2)	Oregon (2)
#4	Oklahoma	LSU (1)	LSU (2)
#5	Stanford	Boise State (2)	Florida State
#6	Wisconsin	Florida State	Stanford
#7	South Carolina	Stanford	Boise State
#8	Florida State	Texas A+M	Oklahoma State
#9	Texas A+M	Oklahoma State	Texas A+M
#10	Virginia Tech	Nebraska	Wisconsin
#11	Nebraska	Wisconsin	Nebraska
#12	Arkansas	South Carolina	South Carolina
#13	Oklahoma State	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech
#14	Boise State	TCU	Arkansas
#15	West Virginia	Arkansas	TCU
#16	Mississippi State	Notre Dame	Ohio State
#17	Notre Dame	Michigan State	Michigan State
#18	USC	Ohio State	Notre Dame
#19	Georgia	Georgia	Auburn
#20	Arizona State	Mississippi State	Mississippi State
#21	Michigan State	Missouri	Missouri
#22	Florida	Florida	Georgia
#23	Utah	Auburn	Florida
#24	Auburn	West Virginia	Texas
#25	Texas	USC	Penn State
#* 26	Missouri	Texas	Arizona State
#* 27	Penn State	Penn State	West Virginia
#* 28	Ohio State	Arizona State	Utah

Some notes: Everyone and their mother seems to believe Oklahoma is the clear cut preseason #1 team going into the season, but they have the undesirable stench of overrated to me. In my opinion, the SEC has won 5 consecutive National Titles; so shouldn’t the SEC front-runner be preseason #1? That is what caused me to jump Alabama to #1. Sliding Oregon and LSU up a spot each was easy; and of course a lot will be determined after their September 3^rd showdown in Dallas. As for Oklahoma, they can make a statement to the Dirt Poll if they win at Florida State early in the year. I also slid Stanford up a few slots to round out the top 5; heck, with Andrew Luck, how can the Cardinal not be in the top 5?

Wisconsin is another team that intrigues me, the transferring of Russell Wilson could be huge and I think the Big 10 is up for grabs now that Ohio State has been diminished greatly by off-field incidents. South Carolina goes in that category as well, which is why I climbed them up my poll. Freshman sensation Marcus Lattimore returns for his sophomore season (watch out for his Heisman talk as the year goes along) and he is joined by veteran QB Stephen Garcia and #1 overall recruit Jadaveon Clowney; which equals the Gamecocks having a big year. I dropped Florida State a peg or two, while I kept Texas A+M about the same. To round out the top 10, I pushed Virginia Tech up; with Miami out of the picture in the ACC, the Hokies are a team you can never forget about.

Nebraska should have a good year in their inaugural Big 10 season; and look for Arkansas to pick up right where Ryan Mallet left them, though I don’t expect a return to a BCS game. Both Oklahoma State and Boise State also seem overrated to me, but if the Broncos are able to handle Georgia early on – don’t be surprised if we have to listen to the BCS busters talk all season long. West Virginia rounds out my top 15, and they’re another team I think will surprise people this year. The Big East is dreadful (hint, Connecticut to the Fiesta Bowl last season); so I think they could easily go 9-3, or 10-2.

Mississippi State is one of those SEC teams who play four ‘Baylor School for the Blind’ teams in their preseason games, so a 4-4 or 5-3 conference record gives them 8 or 9 wins. I’m not too sure about Notre Dame; it seems people yearn to rank them back in the Top 25 every season. But a strong finish and whipping of Miami in the Sun Bowl last season has me intrigued. USC is a team that should be in everyone’s Top 25; they will be playing in the weak Pac 12 South division and with Matt Barkley back for his 3^rd year as a starter, they can win a lot of games this year (and not go to a bowl game, of course). Georgia always has stockpiled talent, but can never seem to put the pieces together. Aaron Murray showed promise last year at QB, and if they can get over losing A.J. Green they could have a good year. Arizona State finalizes my top 20 and I think they are the default winners of the Pac 12 South this year. An early on matchup with Wisconsin has Sun Devil fans licking their fingers.

Michigan State, Florida, Utah, Auburn and Texas are the final teams to make the top 25 cut in the Dirt Poll. The Spartans had a WAY overrated season last year (which showed in a 50 point loss to Alabama in the Outback bowl). It will be interesting to see how Florida will perform under new head coach Will Muschamp; and to see if they can find a QB who could fill one of Tim Tebow’s shoes. Utah will get their first shot in a new, tougher conference. Returning QB Jordan Wynn has a lot of talent, so stay tuned to see if they can handle playing an actual game every Saturday. I couldn’t leave Auburn out of the top 25, heck they won the National Title last year. But losing their ‘Superman’ Cam Newton will be tough; extremely tough, to cope with. And finally, what would a preseason poll be without Texas? They debut their own national TV network this fall, and something is telling me Mack Browns’ Longhorns won’t miss another bowl game this season.

Just missing the cut were Missouri, Penn State and Ohio State. Missouri will have to deal with losing golden haired, golden armed Blaine Gabbert; which won’t be easy. I had to stick Penn State in there, how can you not mention the 190 year old Joe Pa’s team? And last but certainly not least, Ohio State. Did anyone else spit up their cheerios when they saw both the coaches and AP put the Buckeyes in their top 20? Are you kidding me? I had to stick them at #28 just so I could rant a little. No Terrelle Pryor (any Duck fans thanking their lucky stars he didn’t come to Oregon?), a freshman and interim head coach, and the mood around the program stinking like garbage? I say – no sweater vest roaming the sideline, no more than 8 wins this year; at best!

Well that wraps it up, hope you enjoyed the first ever Dirt preseason poll; and hope you didn’t think, ‘what an idiot’ when you peeped the rankings. Should be an exciting, dramatic and entertaining college football season; and I know I can’t wait until it starts! What about you?