Sunday, October 23, 2011

Dirt Poll - Week Nine

Before the season started, I previewed the first ever Dirt Preseason Poll. So I figured, why not continue it throughout the season. After each weeks slate of games, I’ll update my rankings – add teams who are deserving, and drop teams out who lost. So sit back; and check back every Monday to see the movers and shakers in the Dirt Top 25 poll.
            I’ll include their rank, where they were ranked in my poll the week before, their AP ranking, BCS ranking and their record. Enjoy:

Rank
The Dirt Poll
Record
LW
AP
BCS
1
LSU
8-0 (5-0)
1
1
1
2
Alabama
8-0 (5-0)
2
2
2
3
Stanford
7-0 (5-0)
5
4
6
4
Oklahoma State
7-0 (4-0)
6
3
3
5
Clemson
8-0 (5-0)
8
6
5
6
Oregon
6-1 (4-0)
7
7
7
7
Arkansas
6-1 (2-1)
9
8
10
8
Kansas State
7-0 (4-0)
13
10
8
9
Michigan State
6-1 (3-0)
19
9
11
10
Wisconsin
6-1 (2-1)
4
12
15
11
South Carolina
6-1 (4-1)
11
14
13
12
Boise State
7-0 (2-0)
10
5
4
13
USC
6-1 (3-1)
15
20
NA
14
Nebraska
6-1 (2-1)
14
13
14
15
Oklahoma
6-1 (3-1)
3
11
9
16
Michigan
6-1 (2-1)
16
17
18
17
Texas A+M
5-2 (3-1)
17
16
16
18
Virginia Tech
7-1 (3-1)
20
15
12
19
Penn State
7-1 (4-0)
21
21
19
20
Arizona State
5-2 (3-1)
22
23
21
21
Texas Tech
5-2 (2-2)
NA
19
20
22
Georgia
5-2 (3-1)
NA
22
22
23
Houston
7-0 (3-0)
NA
18
17
24
Washington
5-2 (3-1)
18
NA
NA
25
West Virginia
5-2 (1-1)
12
25
25

·         Notes:
o   Dropped out: #24 Illinois – lost to Purdue; #25 Georgia Tech – lost to Miami (FL); #23 Auburn – lost to #1 LSU
o   Moved in: #21 Texas Tech – defeated #3 Oklahoma; #22 Georgia – bye week; #23 Houston – defeated Marshall

·         Ranked Teams Per Conference:
o   SEC – 5
o   Pac 12 – 5
o   Big 10 – 5
o   Big 12 – 5
o   ACC – 2
o   Big East – 1
o   Mountain West – 1
o   Conference USA – 1 

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

College Football: Conference - Updates, Standings, Predictions

Well, it sure has been an interesting college football season thus far. I bet all of you had Kansas State and Clemson undefeated through week seven of the season; I did, didn’t I? (psshh). Nonetheless, were at the half way point of the season and the title contenders have been trimmed down to a handful of teams (I think). LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Clemson and Boise State are the remaining undefeated teams that landed in the top 10 of the season’s first BCS Standings. Which ones will last? Which ones will falter? And how about the conference races – who’s in the lead, who’s within striking distance and, how do my preseason conference predictions look at this point in the season? (yikes). Yet most importantly (please disregard my preseason picks), let’s make some more predictions! I’ll look at the remaining schedules of each team, and pick the winner of each AQ conference – then of course, the BCS games. So sit back – relax, agree, disagree, scream at your computer monitor, laugh, hate me, love me; but make sure to enjoy them. Read em’ and weep.

ACC
            Let’s keep it simple and go in alphabetical order. First up, the ACC. There are three teams in the running for the Atlantic Division; with arguably only two in the race for the Coastal Division. Take a look at the current standings, records, and my preseason prediction for the teams:

                   Atlantic                                                                    Coastal
Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.
 1
Clemson
7-0 (4-0)
8-4 (5-3)

1
Georgia Tech
6-1 (3-1)
7-5 (4-4)
2
Wake Forrest
4-2 (3-1)
2-9 (1-7)

2
Virginia Tech
6-1 (2-1)
11-1 (7-1)
3
Florida State
3-3 (1-2)
10-2 (7-1)






            Clemson has clearly been the surprise so far in the ACC (and there only one win away from my preseason predicted total). Georgia Tech has come from nowhere, running the triple option, to become the frontrunner in the Coastal Division. However, Wake Forrest and Virginia Tech will have something to say about who makes the ACC Championship Game. In taking a look at the rest of each teams schedule – here’s how I see them finishing up, the winners of each Division.

                   Atlantic                                               Coastal
Rk.
Team
Rec.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
1
Clemson
10-2 (7-1)

1
Virginia Tech
11-1 (7-1)
2
Florida State
8-4 (6-2)

2
Georgia Tech
9-3 (6-2)
3
Wake Forrest
7-5 (5-3)





            Can Clemson keep up their winning ways? Tough road games at Georgia Tech and South Carolina remain on the schedule – both will be tough to win, and I believe they’ll lose both. Florida State has made it through the gauntlet of their schedule, and they should be able to roll from this point on (but who knows if they will). Wake Forrest has been a nice story, but it’s difficult to imagine they’ll stay relevant in the ACC Atlantic Division. Virginia Tech has recovered from the humbling loss at home to Clemson with back-to-back wins over Miami (FL) and Wake Forrest. Georgia Tech is an intriguing team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it to the ACC Title game. A November game between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech will decide the Coastal winner – and it’s played in Blacksburg.

·         ACC Championship Game: Clemson (Atlantic Division) Vs Virginia Tech (Coastal Division)
o   ACC Champion: Clemson Tigers

Big 12
            Well, if you had Kansas State sitting atop the Big 12 standings this late in the season you’re crazy (crazy smart that is). But their remaining schedule will be difficult, very difficult. Can they keep it up? Only time will tell. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A+M are the remaining teams in the race – and a November game between the Sooners and Cowboys in Stillwater will most likely decide the champion. Take a look at the current standings, the team’s records and my preseason prediction for the four teams:

Rk.
Team
Record
Pred.
1
Kansas State
6-0 (3-0)
6-6 (3-6)
2
Oklahoma
6-0 (3-0)
10-2 (7-2)
3
Oklahoma State
6-0 (3-0)
8-4 (6-3)
4
Texas A+M
4-2 (2-1)
10-2 (8-1)

            With three teams remaining unbeaten in the conference (and overall) the Big 12 has been a very competitive conference this season. Don’t forget, sitting right behind the undefeated teams, is one-loss Texas A+M – who will still have a chance to play two of the three teams ahead of them. And Kansas State, despite the doubters, will have the opportunity to play both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  After reviewing their remaining schedule, here’s how I think the conference will play out:

Rk.
Team
Record
1
Oklahoma
11-1 (8-1)
2
Oklahoma State
10-2 (7-2)
3
Texas A+M
9-3 (7-2)
4
Kansas State
9-3 (6-3)

Can Kansas State knock off Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A+M to secure the Big 12 crown? I don’t think so either. Oklahoma still has to play at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas A+M – both games will go a long way in deciding the conference winner. Texas A+M already lost to Oklahoma State – but still gets a chance to take down Kansas State and has a trip to Norman to take on the Sooners. Who wins the conference? I don’t think Oklahoma will make it through the season undefeated, but I do believe they’ll take home the Big 12 title. It will be a race to the finish line though, that’s for sure.

·         Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma Sooners

Big East
            The Big East is the only conference remaining without an undefeated team, which is a tad embarrassing. On top of that, West Virginia is the only team ranked in the AP Top 25 and BCS Standings (AP: #11; BCS: #15). Their only loss came to the #1 ranked team in the country, though, LSU. Rutgers, Connecticut and Cincinnati are the other two teams in the race for the Big East crown, and it should be an interesting race (exciting, no). Take a look at the current standings, the team’s records and my predicted record for each.

Rk.
Team
Record
Pred.
1
Rutgers
5-1 (2-0)
5-7 (2-5)
2
Cincinnati
5-1 (1-0)
5-7 (2-5)
3
West Virginia
5-1 (1-0)
10-2 (6-1)
4
Connecticut
3-4 (1-1)
6-6 (3-4)

            Rutgers and Cincinnati have surprised this season, but both still have to face preseason favorite West Virginia. Connecticut remains in the race – however they’re a long shot. There’s not much to say about the conference, as none of the teams are anywhere near the BCS Title game chase. Heck, Connecticut won the Big East last season – and loss by 40 points to Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. So here’s how I think the conference will end up:

Rk.
Team
Record
1
West Virginia
10-2 (6-1)
2
Cincinnati
8-4 (4-3)
3
Connecticut
6-6 (4-3)
4
Rutgers
7-5 (3-4)

            If anyone other than West Virginia wins the Big East, I will be truly shocked. Cincinnati, Connecticut and Rutgers all have decent squads – but should not compete for the conference title. Pittsburg and Syracuse could make their way into the race, but again – the conference is West Virginia’s to win.

·         Big East Champion: West Virginia Mountaineers

Big 10
            While it appears to be a down year for the top tier of the Big 10, Wisconsin remains unbeaten and in the National Title hunt – and the conference boasts more ranked teams than any other in the nation (6). Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State are in the hunt for the Legends Division; with Wisconsin, Illinois and Penn State are fighting for the Leaders Division crown. Take a look at the current standings, records and my preseason prediction for each team.

                   Legends                                                                   Leaders
Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.
 1
Michigan State
5-1 (2-0)
7-5 (4-4)

1
Penn State
6-1 (3-0)
8-4 (5-3)
2
Michigan
6-1 (2-1)
9-3 (5-3)

2
Wisconsin
6-0 (2-0)
11-1 (7-1)
3
Nebraska
5-1 (1-1)
10-2 (6-2)

3
Illinois
6-1 (2-1)
7-5 (4-4)

            Michigan State and Penn State are the front runners at this point in the season; but preseason favorites Nebraska and Wisconsin aren’t far behind. Wisconsin seems poised for a BCS Title run – and it will be fun to watch if anyone can knock them off (Michigan State gets a chance this weekend). Illinois is still in the hunt in the Leaders Division, and Michigan is a week removed from being unbeaten. Take a look at how I think the season will play out:

                   Legends                                              Leaders
Rk.
Team
Rec.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
1
Nebraska
9-3 (5-3)

1
Wisconsin
12-0 (8-0)
2
Michigan State
8-4 (5-3)

2
Penn State
8-4 (5-3)
3
Michigan
9-3 (5-3)

3
Illinois
8-4 (4-4)

            The Legends division will have an intriguing end, as Nebraska travels to Michigan and faces Michigan State at home. I think they’ll lose at Michigan, but beat Michigan State. So what is the division ends up in a three way, 5-3, tie? The winner would be the team with the highest ranking, which if things continue the way they are, should be Nebraska. On the Leaders Division side, I don’t think anyone will be able to knock off the Badgers. Can they make it unbeaten? I believe so. And of course, this season brings the first ever Big 10 Championship game – in Indianapolis. Nebraska versus Wisconsin rematch – we’ll see.

·         Big 10 Championship Game: Nebraska (Legends) Vs Wisconsin (Leaders)
o   Big 10 Champion: Wisconsin Badgers

Pac 12
            Stanford and Oregon – is there anyone else? Washington and Arizona State will have something to say about that. But, there’s no doubt, the Pac12 has one of the best one-two punches of any conference in the country. Both Stanford and Oregon are ranked in the top 10 in all major polls – and all eyes are looking towards their November showdown in Palo Alto. However, Washington remains unbeaten in Pac 12 play – and the Huskies play at Stanford this weekend, while also getting the Ducks at home in a few weeks. Can they do the unthinkable and win the North? No. The South Division remains up for grabs as well, Arizona State is out front – but if UCLA beats Arizona Thursday night they’ll be tied for the lead. Take a look at the standings, records and my preseason predictions for the teams:

                   North                                                                       South
Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.
1
Stanford
6-0 (4-0)
10-7 (7-2)

1
Arizona St.
5-2 (3-1)
9-3 (6-3)
2
Oregon
5-1 (3-0)
12-0 (9-0)

2
*USC
5-1 (3-1)
8-4 (5-4)
3
Washington
5-1 (3-0)
7-5 (5-4)

3
UCLA
3-3 (2-1)
5-7 (3-6)
          
          Washington has surprised many by their fast start with first year quarterback Keith Price – but we’ll know a lot more about the Huskies after their games against Stanford and Oregon (they have not beaten a team with a winning record). In the South Division – USC would be in the race if it weren’t for their NCAA sanctions and inability to play in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Therefore, the South will likely be decided when Arizona State takes on UCLA. Take a look at how I think the Pac12 season will play out:

                   North                                                  South
Rk.
Team
Rec.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
1
Oregon
11-1 (9-0)

1
Arizona State
10-2 (8-1)
2
Stanford
11-1 (8-1)

2
UCLA
7-5 (6-3)
3
Washington
8-4 (6-3)

3
*USC
9-3 (6-3)

            The Pac 12 Championship game unlikely will be decided between the winner of the North and the winner of the South in December. Nope, it will be decided when Oregon travels to Stanford on November 12th. Many are predicting Stanford wins the game – but I disagree. Oregon ended up rolling a ranked Arizona State team last weekend; and that was without star quarterback Darron Thomas or Heisman runner-up LaMichael James. On top of that, after falling behind 21-3 at Autzen last year – the Ducks ended their game against Stanford on a 52-10 run. And that was against a Stanford team that finished 11-1 and stomped Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Though, the last conference game the Ducks lost was two seasons ago at Stanford. The Ducks have rolled off 15 consecutive conference wins since that loss – and until someone in the Pac 12 proves they can slow this Ducks squad down – I don’t see them losing.

·         Pac 12 Championship Game: Oregon (North) Vs Arizona State (South)
o   Pac 12 Champion: Oregon Ducks

SEC
            A conference that has won five consecutive BCS National Championships (Florida, LSU, Florida, Alabama, and Auburn) is at it again this season. While the last five seasons have brought jubilation to the SEC, their all-time BCS title game record is just as impressive. There have been 13 total BCS National Championship Games – the SEC has won seven of them (aka, more than half). And this season, how about the top two ranked teams in the country? Check. LSU and Alabama are on a collision course for their game in November – the winner likely will be the front runner to attempt a sixth consecutive BCS National Championship victory. Georgia, South Carolina and Auburn represent the next tier of talent in the SEC – but will any of them pull off an upset? Take a look at the current standings, records and my preseason predictions for the teams:

East                                                                     West
Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
Pred.
1
South Carolina
6-1 (4-1)
10-2 (6-2)

1
Alabama
7-0 (4-0)
11-1 (7-1)
2
Georgia
5-2 (4-1)
9-3 (5-3)

2
LSU
7-0 (4-0)
8-4 (5-3)





3
Auburn
5-2 (3-1)


            Georgia has bounced back from an early season loss to Boise State – and they’re right behind South Carolina. Though the Bulldogs already lost to the Gamecocks, South Carolina All-American running back Marcus Lattimore is done for the season with a knee injury. In the West, Alabama and LSU are clearly the favorites, though Auburn could shake up the race if they knock off #1 LSU this weekend. Here’s how I think the conference will play out:

                   East                                                             West
Rk.
Team
Rec.

Rk.
Team
Rec.
1
Georgia
10-2 (7-1)

1
Alabama
12-0 (8-0)
2
South Carolina
9-3 (6-2)

2
LSU
11-1 (7-1)




3
Auburn
7-5 (4-3)

            Much like the Pac 12, the winner of the SEC shouldn’t be decided in the conference championship game – instead during a November showdown in Tuscaloosa. Can Alabama run the table – I believe they can. Auburn shouldn’t cause too much trouble for either the Tigers or the Crimson Tide. I think Georgia can run off W’s in the rest of their games – and South Carolina will struggle on offense without Lattimore.

·         SEC Championship Game: Georgia (East) Vs Alabama (West)
o   SEC Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide

So there you have it, how I believe the college football season will play out from this point on – the six BCS Conference winners. But now, we can’t leave it at that. If the season does end up this way, here’s how I believe the BCS Bowl games would fall into place. Remember, if Wisconsin and Alabama make it to the title game – the Rose Bowl would be forced to take a non AQ team (Boise State) and the Sugar Bowl would get first choice in choosing a replacement for Alabama. Here’s how I think it will end up:

·         Orange Bowl
o   Clemson Tigers (ACC Champ) Vs Oklahoma State (At-Large)
·         Fiesta Bowl
o   Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) Vs West Virginia (Big East Champ)
·         Sugar Bowl
o   LSU (At-Large) Vs Stanford (At-Large)
·         Rose Bowl
o   Oregon (Pac 12 Champ) Vs Boise State (At-Large)
·         BCS National Championship Game
o   Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ) Vs Alabama (SEC)