Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Recap, Analysis, Opinion; From a Long Night in Dallas – LSU Vs Oregon

Where to begin… It was a long, tough night for Duck fans everywhere; as they watched their team squander opportunity after opportunity en route to a 40-27 loss to #4 LSU. Jerry Jones’ world didn’t turn out to be magical for the Ducks – and neither did the awesome new uniforms they rolled out. I’ve taken some time now to reflect, think and discuss my thoughts on the game – and now it’s time to put them on paper. So here it is folks, everything I took in from that miserable loss.
            To begin, let’s take some words of wisdom from Chip – “Those are self inflicted wounds. The drops, the turnovers and the penalties are the things that really killed us. Against a team like that, you’re not going to win the game.” Well coach, I couldn’t have said it better myself. That, in essence; sums up the entire game. Penalties, turnovers, brain farts and missed opportunities.
            But folks, let’s take a step back for a second. After reading last Sunday’s columns on the game, my initial reaction was; really? Was I watching a different game than everyone else? Did Oregon get dominated? Pushed back and forth, dragged across the field against their will? The answer is no, they didn’t. In fact, they played a decent football game; minus the 4 turnovers that led to 20 LSU points, and the 12 penalties for 95 yards. If you look at the numbers and the situations; the Ducks actually held their own, while performing dreadfully.
            So my first urge to journalists’, sports fans and especially Duck fans – this is not the end of the world. I repeat: this is not the end of the world. This game proved one thing to anyone that watched it. Not that the SEC is dominant over the Pac 12; not that Oregon does not belong on the big stage; not that LSU is the best team in the country; not that the Ducks will go 5-7 and miss a bowl game; not that Chip Kelly can’t win the big game. It proved – if you turn the ball over 4 times; leading to 20 points for your opponent, it’s tough to win the game. So before we bury the Ducks, announce their season is over, denounce Chip Kelly for not winning the ‘big’ game or think they don’t belong on the national stage – take a look at the facts.
            The stats will tell you everything you need to know about the game; and how the Ducks actually did compete. So let’s take a look at those stats.
Stat
Oregon
LSU
Total Yards
335
273
Passing Yards
240
98
Rushing Yards
95
175
First Downs
18
18
Time of Poss.
26:56
33:04

Now let me ask you; do any of those stats stand out? Is there any key area of the game that they got decisively outplayed? You could argue that the rushing yards were largely in favor of LSU, but the Tigers were outgained in total yardage and didn’t even top 100 passing yards. The time of possession, a big issue in the Ohio State and Auburn losses, wasn’t too big of a factor.
            So how did they lose the game? One simple word: turnovers. With the Ducks leading 6-3 early in the 2nd quarter; the defense forced a punt – Kenjon Barner decided to field it, which resulted in a fumble, a touchdown and an LSU lead of 9-6. Trailing 16-13 to begin the third quarter; the Ducks forced a punt and immediately got the ball back. On the third play of the drive; Freshman De’Anthony Thomas – after already picking up a first down – fumbled. Four plays and 30 yards later; LSU scored, extending their lead to 23-13. Now if the Ducks hold on to either one of those fumbles; the game could have turned out completely different. After LSU went up 10; 23-13, on ensuing kickoff Thomas again fumbled. 40 yards and another touchdown later, the game was near the end of the 3rd quarter, the Ducks offense had been on the field for 3 plays in the second half; and they trailed 30-13. Just like that, in essence, the game was over.  
            I understand it’s easy to sit in the aftermath and play the “shoulda’, coulda’ woulda” game. Against Ohio State, if Laggarrete Blount doesn’t fumble into the end zone when the Ducks are about the take the lead in the third quarter; Oregon could win that game. If Jeff Maehl or Tueinei are able to finish off their long completions, instead of Oregon scoring 6 points for three trips inside the 5 yard line; Oregon could have won the BCS National Championship. And if Barner and Thomas hold onto the ball – they could have won against LSU. But, it turned out the way it did and there’s no turning back for the Ducks.
            My main worry about the Ducks heading into the season was high expectations. After going undefeated in the regular season last year; it’s hard not to expect that kind of result every season from here on out. And the sad truth is, even an 11-1 season would be considered a step back. But before you whine and gripe about their performance in Dallas, remember: the Ducks can still go 12-1, win the Pac 12 and go to the Rose Bowl. Two years ago, we would have been jumping for joy with that kind of result. And hopefully, if it happens this year, we will be jumping for joy again. It is impossible to go undefeated every year; and kudos to the Ducks for scheduling a game against LSU to start the season off. Oregon easily could have scheduled Bay School for the Blind to open things up; and if they did they could have rumbled off a 6-0, 7-0, 8-0 start going into the Stanford game. Teams around the country should be taking note of the Ducks willingness to play a game like this in a season opener.
            Another thing to remember, it’s always good to lose your first game of the season; and not you’re last. The Ducks dropped to #13 in the AP Poll, but if they win out they will only continue to climb. LSU will win 8, 9 or 10 games this season – so the loss will look good on their resume. Just wait for teams to falter ranked ahead of the Ducks – and if they can keep winning; wait for the Ducks to climb back up into the top 5. The Ducks are the highest ranked team with a loss, in fact, the only team in the top 15 with a loss. So it’s hard to see another team losing and being ranked ahead of them.
            In the end, sure it was a depressing night in Dallas for Oregon fans. But hey, there’s always the Beavers to cheer things up – they lost at home to Division 2 Sacramento State. Thanks Beavers, for help making me smile on a sad Saturday in Euge

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Dirt Poll - Week 2

Before the season started, I previewed the first ever Dirt Preseason Poll. So I figured, why not continue it throughout the season. After each weeks slate of games, I’ll update my rankings – add teams who are deserving, and drop teams out who lost. So sit back; and check back every Monday to see the movers and shakers in the Dirt Top 25 poll.
            I’ll include their rank, where they were ranked in my poll the week before, their AP ranking and their record. Enjoy:

Rank
The Dirt Poll
Record
LW
AP
1
LSU
1-0 (0-0)
3
2
2
Alabama
1-0 (0-0)
1
3
3
Oklahoma
1-0 (0-0)
4
1
4
Stanford
1-0 (0-0)
5
6
5
Wisconsin
1-0 (0-0)
6
8
6
South Carolina
1-0 (0-0)
7
12
7
Florida State
1-0 (0-0)
8
5
8
Texas A+M
1-0 (0-0)
9
7
9
Boise State
1-0 (0-0)
14
4
10
Oregon
0-1 (0-0)
3
13
11
Virginia Tech
1-0 (0-0)
10
11
12
Nebraska
1-0 (0-0)
11
10
13
Arkansas
1-0 (0-0)
12
14
14
Oklahoma State
1-0 (0-0)
13
9
15
Mississippi State
1-0 (0-0)
16
16
16
West Virginia
1-0 (0-0)
15
19
17
Arizona State
1-0 (0-0)
20
NA
18
Texas
1-0 (0-0)
25
24
19
Florida
1-0 (0-0)
22
18
20
Baylor
1-0 (0-0)
NA
20
21
USC
1-0 (0-0)
18
NA
22
Michigan
1-0 (0-0)
NA
NA
23
Ohio State
1-0 (0-0)
NA
15
24
Michigan State
1-0 (0-0)
21
17
25
Maryland
1-0 (1-0)
NA
NA

·         Notes:
o   Dropped out – #17 Notre Dame – loss to South Florida; #23 Utah – weak showing Vs Montana State; #24 Auburn – narrowly beat Utah State; #19 Georgia – lost to Boise State
o   Moved in – #21 Baylor – defeated TCU; #22 Michigan – defeated Western Michigan; #23 Ohio State – defeated Akron ; #25 Maryland – defeated Miami 

Saturday, September 3, 2011

BCS Bowl Game Predictions

You’ve seen my conference picks for each of the major BCS conferences – so naturally it’s time for some BCS bowl game picks. Using my 6 automatic bids from each conference; I’ll add my at large bids – and pick the teams that will make each BCS game, as well as the winner (besides for the BCS National Championship). Here’s how the Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl and BCS Championship game will turn out. So enjoy, agree, disagree – and read em’ and weep:

·         Automatic Bids:
o   ACC: Florida State 11-2 (8-1)
o   Big 12: Texas A+M 10-2 (8-1)
o   Big East: West Virginia 10-2 (6-1)
o   Big 10: Wisconsin 12-1 (8-1)
o   Pac 12: Oregon 13-0 (10-0)
o   SEC: Alabama 12-1 (8-1)

·         At-Large possibilities:
o   Virginia Tech 11-2 (7-2)
o   Oklahoma 9-3 (7-2)
o   Nebraska 10-3 (6-3)
o   Stanford 10-2 (7-2)
o   South Carolina 10-3 (6-3)
o   Boise State 11-1 (8-0)

The BCS Games:
·         Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
o   Wisconsin (Big 10 Champion) Vs Stanford (At-Large)
§  Winner: Wisconsin

·         Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, Louisiana)
o   South Carolina (At-Large) Vs Virginia Tech (At-Large)
§  Winner: South Carolina

·         Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona)
o   Texas A+M (Big 12 Champion) Vs West Virginia (Big East Champion)
§  Winner: Texas A+M

·         Orange Bowl (Miami, Florida)
o   Florida State (ACC Champion) Vs Nebraska (At-Large)
§  Winner: Nebraska

·         BCS National Championship Game (New Orleans, Louisiana)
o   Oregon (Pac 12 Champion) Vs Alabama (SEC Champion)
§  Winner: ?