Thursday, January 19, 2012

Dear Darron Thomas, Thanks for the Memories

Saturday, January 14th was shaping up to be such a great day for me. First, my San Francisco 49ers defeated the New Orleans Saints to advance to the NFC Championship game. That was followed up by Tim Tebow “Tebowing” all over the New England Patriots defense to the tune of 3 completions in the first three quarters. That meager performance meant, of course, that the Tebow media conglomerate had come to an end, and the Denver Broncos had been eliminated from the NFL Playoffs.
            Then, out of the blue, I was smacked upside the head by reality. In a decision that caught pretty much every Duck fan off guard, Junior quarterback Darron Thomas decided to forego his Senior season and enter the NFL Draft. Wow, o.k.
The decision by LaMichael James to go pro wasn’t a surprising one; running backs only have so much football life in them – and he ran his heart out for three seasons for the Ducks, it was time for him to go make the money he deserves. Then it was Kenjon Barner decision time, in which he rightfully decided to come back for his senior season. Being the #1 back will drastically improve his draft stock, and I’m honestly pumped to see how he flourishes getting the bulk of the carries next season. But, Darron Thomas leaving? Definitely didn’t see this one coming – it wasn’t even near my radar. However, before I get into the logistics of his decision; I want to sit down and have a chat with Duck fans.
            To Duck fans everywhere – take a deep breath, don’t get upset and please listen to what I have to say. I’m not sure if it’s the Nike that runs through our blood, our recent success, the big “ball-ness” of our head coach Chip Kelly, or our flashy uniforms – but it seems to me Duck fans have become conceded and un-logical. The disrespect for Darron Thomas is only the most recent example I can point to, and I will claim that Thomas is the most unappreciated player in Oregon Football history.
            Let me explain – after Oregon lost to LSU in the season opener, I heard Duck fans complaining about Chip Kelly. I heard people proclaiming we needed a new coach; that Chip was integral in getting us to become an annual national power, but he couldn’t win the big game. After that game, people said it was a lost season – and there would be no excitement in a non national title season. Really? Do I need to remind fans that as recent as 2005, the Ducks went 5-6 and missed a bowl game? To all the people that questioned Chip after that game, I’m pretty sure you’re quiet now – after he beat Wisconsin two weeks ago. But in case you need reminding, Chip is 34-6 in three seasons, has won three consecutive Pac-12 conference titles and now has the first Rose Bowl trophy the school’s seen since 1917. Enough said.
            Next up is the lethargic support for the Rose Bowl this season. With only days remaining before the game, the University hadn’t even sold out its allotment of tickets. Everyone I talked to seemed to have extra tickets they were looking to get rid of, no one appeared to want to go to the game. I knew the danger going into the season, following a 12-0 campaign and BCS National Championship appearance – even a 10-2 season with a Rose Bowl could feel like a disappointment. And I also understand that the economy is in shambles right now, and an expensive trip to Pasadena is out of the question for some families. That being said, do the Duck fans remember that just two seasons ago, we made our first trip to the Rose Bowl in 15 years, since the 1994 season? Remember the excitement that season? The elation that followed defeating Oregon State in the Civil War to win the Pac-10 for the first time since 2001, and earn a berth in the Grand-Daddy of them all? My question is, where was that support and excitement this season? A BCS berth has become an expected occurrence under Chip, which to me seems a little conceded. Nothing is guaranteed in college football, and we as fans need to enjoy every moment of every season – because honestly, no one knows how long it will last.

            Then the Darron Thomas conundrum this season. Coming off a Sophomore campaign in which he led the Ducks to a 12-0 regular season, threw for the most yards ever in a BCS National Championship game – but came up short by a field goal; Duck fans expected an even better year. As the season went along, it was (insert) complaint here.
            He doesn’t run enough, the Ducks offense would be even better if he was an effective runner. He can’t win the big game – lost to Auburn, LSU and USC. He’s not that accurate, could be a far better passer. He’s inconsistent. Then came the Arizona State game, when the football world was introduced to Bryan Bennett. Now it’s true for most football teams that the back-up quarterback is the most popular player on the team (besides for Brady Leaf) – and this was certainly the case with Darron Thomas and Bryan Bennett.
            Before hurting his knee in that game, Thomas was 13 for 17 with 187 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 Int. Bennett came in, and went 2 of 5 for 22 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. He did, however, run the ball 5 times for 65 yards, averaging 13.0 yards per carry. The next week, Bennett started at Colorado and went 11 for 20 with 156 yards, 2 TD’s and no picks. He also carried it 6 times for 69 yards. How about the Washington State debacle? Before being “benched” at halftime (aka, taken out because of his knee), Thomas went 8 for 13 with 153 yards, 1 TD and 2 picks – but let me remind you, one of those interceptions was a dropped ball by a receiver, while the other was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Then Bennett came in and went 4 for 7 with 88 yards, 2 TD’s and no picks – also carrying the ball 4 times for 25 yards.
            So was Bennett really that more effective than Darron Thomas? Let me make one point – when Arizona State prepared all week to stop the Ducks offense, how much time do you think they spent game planning for Bryan Bennett? My guess, is none. So when the back-up came in the 3rd quarter of that game, what were they expecting the Ducks offense to do? Hand the ball off. So of course, when Bennett pulled it, tucked it away and went sprinting down the sideline – nobody was more surprised than the Arizona State defense.
            After Darron made his decision to go pro, I heard a lot of people saying – good, Bennett is better anyways. Really? Do you honestly believe that? Because if so, why? Yes, he did catch an Arizona State defense off guard. And yes, he did play well against Colorado and in the second half against Washington State. But let’s be honest, I could have thrown for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns against Colorado – just saying. Take a look at Bennett’s season statistics and let me know if they really are that impressive:

Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
25
46
369
8.0
54.3
6
0
164.8

            Now, his rushing stats were impressive – 23 carries, 200 yards averaging 8.7 yards per carry. But let me remind you, he faced the defenses of Nevada, Missouri State, Arizona State, Colorado, Washington State and Oregon State. Not exactly the cream of the crop. How will he fare against the better defenses, aka the LSU’s, Stanford’s and USC’s of the world? Only time will tell.

            But I digress. I want to get back to my claim that Darron Thomas is the most underappreciated player in Oregon football history. I compiled the stats of the best Oregon QB’s from the last decade or so (Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon) – take a look at how Darron’s numbers compare. Here are each quarterbacks two best years as a starter:

Akili Smith

Year
Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
1997
108
200
1,385
6.9
54.0
13
7
126.6
1998
215
371
3,763
10.1
58.0
32
8
167.3

Joey Harrington

Year
Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
2000
195
375
2,694
7.5
52.0
20
13
123.0
2001
186
322
2,415
7.2
57.8
23
5
141.2

Kellen Clemens

Year
Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
2004
223
372
2,548
6.8
59.9
22
10
131.6
2005
185
289
2,406
8.3
64.0
19
4
152.9

Dennis Dixon

Year
Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
2006
197
322
2,143
5.4
61.2
12
14
120.7
2007
172
254
2,136
8.4
67.6
20
4
161.2

Darron Thomas

Year
Comp.
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
2010
222
361
2,881
8.0
61.5
30
9
151.0
2011
211
399
2,761
8.1
62.2
33
7
158.7

            As you can see from those numbers, the two years that Darron quarterbacked at Oregon were not only the two of the most successful seasons in Oregon football history; but they were also two of the best seasons ever put together, statistically speaking, by an Oregon quarterback.
Now I want to compare the career numbers for each of those quarterbacks. I will put in bold the leader of each statistical category:

QB
Comp
Att.
Yards
Avg.
Pct.
TD
INT
Rating
A. Smith
323
571
5,148
9.0
56.6
45
15
153.1
J. Harrington
465
855
6,289
7.5
54.4
53
21
131.7
K. Clemens
613
1,005
7,555
7.5
61.0
61
24
139.4
D. Dixon
444
695
5,129
7.4
63.9
38
21
137.9
D. Thomas
449
733
5,910
8.2
61.2
66
17
155.0

            Darron Thomas threw more touchdowns than any quarterback in Oregon history, and finished his career with a higher quarterback rating than Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon. But Bryan Bennett is better already….?
The last stat chart I’ll show you (I promise) is a list of all-time leaders at Oregon in passing statistics. Below, are the top five leaders in passing yards, QB rating, completion percentage, TD’s and games played – and I’ll show you where Darron fits into each:

Passing Yards

Rank
Player
#’s
1
Danny O’Neil
8,066
2
Bill Musgrave
7,951
3
Kellen Clemens
7,555
4
Chris Miller
6,681
5
Joey Harrington
6,289
*7
Darron Thomas
5,642

Quarterback Rating

Rank
Player
#’s
1
Darron Thomas
152.7
2
Akili Smith
152.2
3
Kellen Clemens
139.4
4
Dennis Dixon
137.8
5
Joey Harrington
131.7

Completion Percentage

Rank
Player
#’s
1
Dennis Dixon
63.8
2
Kellen Clemens
61.0
3
Darron Thomas
60.8
4
Bill Musgrave
56.8
5
Akili Smith
56.5

Touchdowns

Rank
Player
#’s
1
Darron Thomas
66
2
Danny O’Neil
62
3
Kellen Clemens
61
4
Bill Musgrave
57
5
Joey Harrington
53

Games Played

Rank
Player
#’s
1
Dennis Dixon
40
2
Danny O’Neil
40
3
Bill Musgrave
37
4
Kellen Clemens
37
5
Chris Miller
36
*14
Darron Thomas
30

            So now you have the all-time numbers. How does Darron compare? In school history, he was 7th in passing yards, 1st in quarterback rating, 3rd in completion percentage, 1st and touchdowns – and the most telling stat of all, he finished 14th in games played. It’s safe to say, if Darron returned for his Senior season – he most likely would have shattered all of Oregon’s all-time passing records.

            If you’re still reading at this point – kudos to you; I’m getting close to the end, I promise.

I think part of the reason for backlash over Darron’s decision to leave early, was due to the utter shock that most fans felt. He’s not predicted to be a top draft pick; he’s not a pro-style quarterback – so why would he bolt for the NFL? I completely understand the surprise to the decision. But I want to try and explain why I think he decided to leave…
If you look at this year’s quarterback draft board; there’s Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, then what? Three other guys who were projected to be upper round draft picks – Matt Barkley of USC, Tyler Wilson of Arkansas and Landry Jones at Oklahoma; and they all decided to come back for their senior season. If you’re Darron Thomas – and you see this, wouldn’t it be an encouraging sign? Outside of the two big names Luck and Griffin – there’s a bunch of question marks. This drastically improved his draft stock. And, if a team is willing to use a first round pick on Tim Tebow, or a third round pick on Terrell Pryor – Darron has a shot. All it takes is one GM to fall in love with his potential, or like what they see at the combine.
Also, he’s not only accomplished more than most college quarterbacks dream of; but there’s also not much he can do to improve his draft stock by coming back. In two years as a starter – he’s 23-3, led his teams to a BCS National Championship and a Rose Bowl victory, as well as had two of the best statistical years for a QB in school history. Would coming back for his senior season, and putting up even better or similar numbers improve his draft stock? The answer, is no. Darron is a QB who will never shake the negative connotations that come with his name and playing in the Oregon offense. He’ll always be seen as a system QB, who benefitted from having one of the nation’s best rushing attacks at his disposal. Another 11-1, 10-2 or even 12-0 season would not change that perception. So is it really that surprising that he left? No, not really.
Something I want all fans to know is this – these players don’t owe us anything. A lot of the negative banter has been, “why wouldn’t he want to come back and compete for a national title?” While I completely agree, the Ducks – with Thomas next season – were one of the clear favorites to take home the crystal ball next season; but he does not owe us that opportunity. He played his heart out for two seasons, laid his body on the line week after week for the fans – we should thank him for all the great memories and move on.
The life of a football player is not a long one. There are only so many hits, knockdowns, blows to the head and injuries a football player can take before it’s all gone. What if Darron came back and blew out his knee? Do you think that was something going through his head when he made the decision? Because I definitely do. On top of that, from everything I’ve heard, he doesn’t come from a very fortunate background. Meaning, his name is hot right now – he just won a Rose Bowl – so why not take the money that would come from a player of his stature (most likely $350,000 or so) and make sure his family is taken care of? We all act shocked when a player makes a decision like this – “why would he do this to us?” But, if you were in the same situation – came from a family with very little money, and had a chance to go make more money than you ever dreamed of – wouldn’t you jump at the opportunity? Can you really blame him?
As I mentioned earlier, the backup QB is usually the most popular player on the team (unless you’re a Stanford fan) – and this is, in my opinion, what caused multiple problems for Darron. When he came into the Boise State game his Freshman season and nearly led us to a 30-point comeback, throwing 4 touchdowns in the second half – the hopes for his potential went through the roof. And I think we, as fans, set a bar for him that was unattainable. I just hope we don’t do the same for Bryan Bennett – but I fear some already have.

So how does the depth chart look for next season? Despite what some of you may believe, Bryan Bennett is not already better than Thomas – and no, he would not have competed for the starting job had Darron come back. That being said let me talk down all of you ready to jump off a ledge thinking our season next year is already over. Remember when Masoli was kicked off the team following our Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State? It came down to Darron Thomas or Nate Costa. Two rather inexperienced quarterbacks whom no one really knew what to expect. Well, how did that next season turn out? A Sophomore Thomas got the starting nod, and led us to a 12-0 season. Now, I’m not saying that we are going to go 12-0 next year. Is it a possibility? Sure.
There’s no doubt Oregon will miss the leadership, skill and experience of Darron Thomas next season. But since Chip Kelly took over, he’s had a knack for plugging the next guy in and keeping the WTD train moving forward. With an off-season to practice, learn and prepare with the #1’s, Bennett could be special. And having Arkansas State, Tennessee Tech and Fresno State on the pre-season docket will help a ton in getting Bennett comfortable as the starter. What the rest of the season holds in store, no one really knows. One thing is for certain, winning at USC looks a lot tougher now though than it did two weeks ago.

In closing, I just want to say – thank you Darron Thomas. You led the Ducks to two of the most successful seasons in school history, had two of the best years ever for an Oregon quarterback – and it was an absolute blast to watch. When the anger over his decision passes, I hope fans remember all that Thomas did to keep building our program – and for getting us within a field goal from a National Championship. So Darron, thank you for all the great memories and best of luck in the NFL - I hope you succeed. You’ll be missed.