In a college football matchup that’s considered the game of the century, should there be a little offense? If you currently reside in Louisiana or Alabama, your answer is probably – no, not against a stout SEC defense. Well, we here in the northwest disagree. 9-6? Are you fu**ing kidding me? In an overtime game – neither LSU nor Alabama could muster a single touchdown or even double-digit points on the scoreboard. So before we begin our look into the showdown on The Farm this Saturday, let’s take a look at that Bama-LSU matchup.
Between the two teams, they combined to gain 530 total yards; on the season – Oregon averages 510.6 yards per game, while Stanford averages 505.8 per contest. LSU and Alabama combined for 290 passing yards; on the season Oregon averages 212.2 passing yards per game, while Stanford averages 281.1 a game. In the Tuscaloosa showdown, Bama and LSU combined for 244 rushing yards; Oregon averages 298.4 rushing yards per game, while Stanford averages 224.7 every Saturday. And finally, the two SEC rivals combined for 15 total points; while Oregon puts up 46.0 per game and Stanford scores 48.2 per game. Wow.
Looking at the college football landscape as a whole – the game in Palo Alto on Saturday between #6 Oregon and #3 Stanford will go a long way in deciding who plays in the All-State BCS National Championship Game on January 9th in New Orleans. Take a look at the current Top 7 teams in the country in the BCS, AP, Coaches Poll and Harris Poll (remember; the BCS is decided by 1/3 computer rank, 1/3 Coaches Poll and 1/3 Harris Poll.
| Rank | AP Poll | BCS | USA Coaches Poll | Harris Poll |
| 1 | LSU | LSU | LSU | LSU |
| 2 | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | Stanford | Oklahoma State |
| 3 | Stanford | Alabama | Oklahoma State | Stanford |
| 4 | Alabama | Stanford | Alabama | Alabama |
| 5 | Boise State | Boise State | Boise State | Boise State |
| 6 | Oregon | Oklahoma | Oregon | Oregon |
| 7 | Oklahoma | Oregon | Oklahoma | Oklahoma |
So what implication does the Oregon, Stanford game have on these polls? Well to begin with the obvious, if Stanford wins they will undoubtedly jump Alabama (it’s a travesty in the first place that Alabama is ranked ahead of the Cardinal). Will they move ahead of Oklahoma State? While it’s a possibility, if Oklahoma State remains unbeaten and knocks off Oklahoma on December 3rd – they’ll likely move back ahead of the Cardinal. How about if Oregon wins? First, they will clearly move ahead of Stanford. Many believe with a win over a top 5 team will push them ahead of Boise State as well – and comparing one loss Oklahoma against one loss Oregon will be a no contest; considering the Ducks loss came to the unanimous #1 team in the land, while the Sooners lost to a 5-4 Texas Tech squad at home. Then would come the debate: who deserves the higher ranking, an Oregon team whose only loss was to LSU, or an Alabama team whose only loss came to LSU.
To settle that debate – I compared the numbers from Oregon’s loss to LSU to open the season, with Alabama’s loss to LSU last weekend. An important fact to remember: Oregon’s loss came in the opening weekend of the season, when teams aren’t performing on all cylinders. To prove that, the Ducks turned the ball over 4 times in the LSU game; they have 10 turnovers all season. Also, the Ducks faced LSU in Dallas – a virtual home game for the Tigers; while Alabama faced them in Tuscaloosa in front of 100,000+ of their fans. Another feather in the Ducks cap is a ESPN Sportnation poll that took place this week asking; who is more deserving of a title rematch with LSU – one-loss Oregon or one-loss Alabama. With over 50,000 people voting across the country, Oregon won 55% to 45%. To back up the nation, here are the numbers from their games against LSU:
| Numbers | 11/5 Alabama (Vs. LSU) | 9/3 Oregon (@ LSU – Dallas) |
| Score | L; 6-9 in Overtime | L; 27-40 |
| 1st Downs | 17 | 18 |
| Total Yards | 295 | 335 |
| Pass Yards | 199 | 240 |
| Rush Yards | 96 | 95 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 4 |
| Time of Possession | 30:06 | 26:56 |
Now, I understand this is looking too far ahead; and of course to even compare the two teams Oregon will have to defeat Stanford this weekend. And trust me, if they do, another blog further comparing the Ducks and Crimson Tide will be coming to ‘The Dirt’. So now, before I get too far off track – let’s talk the real game of the century between two teams that can actually score a touchdown: #6 Oregon at #3 Stanford.
I absolutely love to do research and find out the most obscure factoids about sports teams. So to begin, enjoy these random facts; which to be honest, don’t have much to do with the game. But, I guarantee you find them interesting!
· Oregon
o After last week’s game against the Huskies, LaMichael James became the first back to ever rush for over 1,000 yards in three different seasons at Oregon – and surpassed 5,000 career all-purpose yards (5,057) to move him into second place all-time at Oregon.
o Darron Thomas tossed a touchdown pass for the 21st consecutive game; which is every game he’s started in his career.
o Oregon has now won 18 consecutive conference games, dating back to its 2009 loss at Stanford.
· Stanford
o The Cardinal are off to their first 9-0 start since the 1951 season
o Stanford has won 17 consecutive games (the last 8 of last season), which is the longest current streak in the NCAA and the longest in school history. Their last lost came last season at Oregon.
o Five different players have caught at least 20 passes this season from Andrew Luck
o Stanford is a perfect 52 for 52 in the red zone this season
For those of you who know me, you know that I’m a stat junky. I love comparing numbers – yards, points, time of possession – you name it. So to me, there’s no better place to start in analyzing this matchup than by comparing Oregon’s season numbers against Stanford’s.
· The Stats – averages per game and the stats national rank; along with offensive category leaders
Oregon
| Total Yards | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Points For | Points Against |
| 510.7 (7th) | 212.2 (78th) | 298.4 (5th) | 46.0 (5th) | 20.8 (26th) |
· Darron Thomas: 113/188 1,549 Yards 19 Touchdowns
· LaMichael James: 133 Carries 1,061 Yards 8.0 Avg. 9 Touchdowns
· De’Anthony Thomas: 25 Catches 382 Yards 15.3 Avg. 6 Touchdowns
Stanford
| Total Yards | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Points For | Points Against |
| 505.8 (8th) | 281.1 (23rd) | 224.7 (17th) | 48.2 (3rd) | 16.6 (11th) |
· Andrew Luck: 194/272 2,424 Yards 26 Touchdowns
· Stepfan Taylor: 147 Carries 891 Yards 6.1 Avg. 8 Touchdowns
· Griff Whalen: 36 Catches 534 Yards 14.8 Avg. 2 Touchdowns
While the first thing most of you will notice is the astounding offense that both these teams posses, don’t forget the defense. Oregon is only giving up roughly 20 points a game – ranking them just outside of the top 25; while Stanford is only giving up 16 a game – putting them just outside of the top 10 defenses in the nation. Both teams’ defensive units are overlooked, and that’s simply because of their point per minute offenses. Both are in the top 10 in the nation in yards per game, rushing yards per game and points per game. Not too shabby, eh? So will we see a shootout down on The Farm? I’d bet on it.
· Common Opponents
Stanford and Oregon have both played four teams this season; Arizona, Colorado, Washington State and Washington. Naturally, that will come next in the analysis of both teams. How did they compare against each team, take a look.
· Arizona:
o Stanford W; 37-20 @ Arizona
| Numbers | Stanford | Arizona |
| Total Yards | 567 | 333 |
| Pass Yards | 325 | 282 |
| Rush Yards | 242 | 51 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Time of Possession | 35:48 | 24:12 |
o Oregon W; 56-31 @ Arizona
| Numbers | Oregon | Arizona |
| Total Yards | 516 | 480 |
| Pass Yards | 101 | 398 |
| Rush Yards | 415 | 82 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Time of Possession | 25:14 | 34:46 |
· Colorado
o Stanford W; 48-7 Vs Colorado
| Numbers | Stanford | Colorado |
| Total Yards | 553 | 264 |
| Pass Yards | 392 | 204 |
| Rush Yards | 161 | 60 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Time of Possession | 31:26 | 28:34 |
o Oregon W; 45-2 @ Colorado
| Numbers | Oregon | Colorado |
| Total Yards | 527 | 231 |
| Pass Yards | 156 | 133 |
| Rush Yards | 371 | 98 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Time of Possession | 23:03 | 36:57 |
· Washington State
o Stanford W; 44-14 @ Washington State
| Numbers | Stanford | Washington State |
| Total Yards | 475 | 257 |
| Pass Yards | 336 | 209 |
| Rush Yards | 139 | 48 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Time of Possession | 29:15 | 30:45 |
o Oregon W; 43-28 Vs Washington State
| Numbers | Oregon | Washington State |
| Total Yards | 454 | 462 |
| Pass Yards | 241 | 337 |
| Rush Yards | 213 | 125 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Possession | 19:34 | 40:26 |
· Washington
o Stanford W; 65-21 Vs Washington
| Numbers | Stanford | Washington |
| Total Yards | 615 | 430 |
| Pass Yards | 169 | 258 |
| Rush Yards | 446 | 172 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Time of Possession | 33:10 | 26:50 |
o Oregon W; 34-17 @ Washington
| Numbers | Oregon | Washington |
| Total Yards | 381 | 278 |
| Pass Yards | 169 | 196 |
| Rush Yards | 212 | 82 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Time of Possession | 24:01 | 35:59 |
· Pac-12 Play
o Oregon – 6 games (6-0)
§ Total score: 318 – 120; outscored opponents by 198 points
§ Average score: 53.0 – 20.0; average margin of victory of 33.0 points
o Stanford – 7 games (7-0)
§ Total score: 338-132; outscored opponents by 206 points
§ Average Score: 47.5 – 18.8; average margin of victory of 28.0 points
· Advantages
| Position | Stanford | Oregon |
| Quarterback | X | |
| Running Back | | X |
| Wide Receiver/Tight End | | X |
| Offensive Line | X | |
| Defensive Line | X | |
| Linebacker | | X |
| Defensive Back | X | |
| Special Teams | | X |
· Prediction
Everyone who knows anything about Pac-12 football has had this game circled since before the season kicked off. It has become a battle of two top ten teams, two Heisman finalists and couple of quarterbacks from Houston. Interestingly, this game has turned into a little rivalry for the new 12-team conference. Two seasons ago, Oregon traveled down to Stanford after defeating a top five USC team the week before. With a young Andrew Luck, and Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart, the Cardinal out ran the Ducks 51-42. That remains the only conference game the Ducks have lost in the past three seasons (won 18 in a row) and is the lone blemish on Chip Kelly’s Pac-12 (or 10) resume.
Then last season, the two top 10 teams met in Eugene. After jumping out to a 21-3 lead at Autzen, the Cardinal faltered. The Ducks outscored Stanford 49-10 the rest of the way; and won comfortably 52-31. That was the only game Stanford lost all last season, and remains the last game they lost period.
So that brings us to this year. #6 Oregon, #3 Stanford – what a match-up. You’ve heard all the story lines, all the quotes, ‘Andrew Luck this’ and ‘LaMichael James that,’ you’ve seen all the stats – now it’s time to play some football.
There is one battle that I will be watching all night – and will go a long way in deciding who wins the game. That match-up is Stanford’s offensive line versus Oregon’s defensive line. While Andrew Luck gets a ton of praise, and deservingly so, it’s the running game that really makes their offense tick. Duck fans saw in the LSU game what a big power running team can do to their defense; so if Oregon can slow down the Cardinal’s running attack – I like their chances. The key downs to watch will be 1st and 2nd, if the Ducks can hold the line and force Andrew Luck into 3rd and long situations – the blitzing genius that is Nick Allioti will go to work. 3rd and 3 yards to go is much more manageable than 3rd and 8 or 9 yards to go.
That being said, I have to take the Ducks in this game. I think both teams are very evenly talented, and the loss of receiver Chris Owusu and tight end Zack Ertz will really hurt the Cardinal offense. We all know the Ducks will put up some points, especially if they are able to get their speed guys into some open space. The question will be; can Stanford’s offense keep up? They’ll play ball control, they’ll run the clock – but time of possession is not what matters. It’s what you do with that possession that matters.
As I said, I like the Ducks. I think their offense is too powerful to be slowed down, and I think their defense is starting to play its best ball of the season. Look for Stanford to jump out early, Oregon to make some adjustments – and then eventually simply pull away from the Cardinal. It’s going to be a fun one on The Farm tonight! I know we’ll all enjoy it.
| Team | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | Half | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter | Total |
| Stanford | 10 | 14 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
| Oregon | 7 | 14 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
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