Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Wild and Wacky World of College Football: Report from the Half-Way Point

We are right around the half way point in the college football season, and what a year it’s been! It been wild, it’s been unpredictable, it’s been suspenseful, it’s building up for a late season climax – but most importantly, it’s been fun to watch.
            Before the season starts, every college football fan has an idea in their head of how the year will play out. Of course, with your team going undefeated (thanks a lot, Oregon). But if you’re a fan of Kansas State, or Illinois, or for goodness sake – Michigan! Don’t even try and tell me you picked em’ to go undefeated. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve said to myself, “What the ----!” so far this season – I would have, well, a quite a few dollars. So I figured I’d make some observations about the first half of the season; point out things that have stood out to me, things that have surprised me, check in on my preseason picks (yikes) and give you a preview of what’s to come. So sit back, reminisce, and get ready for an exciting second half. Enjoy!

·         Random undefeated teams…
o   There are a few teams this year that have flown completely under the radar (some, who have had the fortunate schedule of not playing a tough team) and remain unscathed. There are five undefeated teams that were all unranked in preseason polls. Check out this list…
·         #8 Clemson Tigers: 6-0 (3-0)
o   If you picked the Tigers to make it to the half way point undefeated, with wins over Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech; you’re smart. Clemson won 6 games all of last season, going 6-7 with a loss in the Meinacke Car Care Bowl to South Florida – which resulted in them being unranked in all major preseason polls. With a freshman quarterback (Tajh Boyd) and freshman playmaker at receiver (Sammy Watkins), the Tigers inexperience hasn’t hampered them one bit.
·         #11 Michigan Wolverines: 6-0 (2-0)
o   I’m guessing not too many of you had Michigan undefeated, especially with first year head coach Brady Hoake. But with Denard Robinson running the offense, they’ve done just that. Michigan was also unranked in the preseason polls. They went 7-5 last season with a loss to Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl; which resulted in the firing of Rich Rodriguez. One more ‘W’ and they’ll match their overall win total from a season ago. Impressive wins over Notre Dame and Northwestern have the Wolverines geared up for a push at the Big 10 Championship.
·         #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 6-0 (3-0)
o   They run the option for heaven sakes! But, despite that, Paul Johnson has his team rumbling and stumbling all over opposing defenses. The Yellow Jackets went 6-7 last season with a loss to Air Force in the Independence Bowl. They were also unranked in preseason polls.
·         #16 Illinois Fighting Illini’: 6-0 (2-0)
o   After a Rose Bowl appearance a few years back, the Illini’ have faded into the college football night. But Ron Zook has his team back in the national spotlight. They’re the only team this season to knock off Arizona State, which they did at home. Illinois went 7-6 with a win over Baylor in the Texas Bowl last season, which is probably why they too were unranked in preseason polls.
·         #17 Kansas State Wildcats: 5-0 (2-0)
o   Now if you had Kansas State undefeated to this point in the season, you’re down right crazy. But with wins over Miami (FL), Baylor and Missouri – Bill Snyder has done just that. The Wildcats went 7-6 with a loss to Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl (what in the world is the Pinstripe Bowl?), and like the others – they too were unranked in preseason polls.

·         Struggling Conference newcomers…
o   Three teams jump ship from their conferences last season, and attempted to move on to greener pastures. Nebraska (Big 12 to Big 10), Utah (Mountain West to Pac 12) and Colorado (Big 12 to Pac 12) – and all of them have struggled. Nebraska remains ranked in national polls, but if it weren’t for the schools biggest comeback win ever, over Ohio State last week, they would be winless in their new conference. Speaking of winless in their new conference, say hello to Utah and Colorado!
·         #14 Nebraska Cornhuskers: 5-1 (1-1)
o   Nebraska seemed destined for Big 12 greatness after their 4-0 start, #9 national ranking, and a showdown with Wisconsin on deck. Then, they sky fell in. The Huskers were dragged up and down the field – and got stomped by the Badgers in Madison. Now, they’ll need to beat undefeated Michigan if they want a shot at playing in the inaugural Big 10 Championship Game.
·         Utah Utes: 2-3 (0-3)
o   With USC unable to participate in the first Pac 12 Championship Game this December due to NCAA sanctions, Utah was a common choice to make it. In their first season in a BCS conference, the Utes have, well, struggled. After a whooping of BYU, many believed they were on that exact track. Then, a close loss at USC and horrendous losses at home to Washington and Arizona State – and Utah is still looking for their first conference win. Think they can kiss those Pac 12 Title game aspirations goodbye!
·         Colorado Buffaloes: 1-5 (0-2)
o   Not to say much was anticipated from the Buffaloes this season, but it’s shaping up to be a long, long season in Boulder. They should technically be 0-3 in conference, but their game against California was not counted as a conference game – because it was scheduled before this season. And their conference games that have counted haven’t gone so well. After a loss to longtime Pac 10 dormant Washington State, they got their butts’ handed to them by Stanford. Not to mention Oregon and Arizona State still sit on the schedule. If the Buffs’ couldn’t handle the Cougars at home – don’t expect them to beat anyone else.

·         The Woeful Big East
o   Every BCS conference has at least one undefeated team remaining; well, except for the Big East. The ACC has two teams (Clemson and Georgia Tech); the Big 12 has three teams (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State); the Big 10 has three teams (Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan); the SEC has two teams (Alabama and LSU); and the Pac 12 has one team (Stanford). The Big East? A whopping ZERO undefeated teams. Pitiful for a conference that has five, I repeat, five non conference games in their schedule.

·         The Dirt Poll – then and now…
o   I showcased my first ever preseason rankings prior to the start of this season, and things haven’t quite turned out the way I thought. The picks haven’t turned out too bad, as five of my preseason Top 10 teams are still in the AP Top 10. But good ole’ Florida State (my preseason #8) is unranked, whoops. So here’s a look at what my preseason Top 10 looks like, compared to the current AP Top 10.

Rank
Dirt Preseason Poll
Current AP Poll
1
Alabama
LSU
2
Oregon
Alabama
3
LSU
Oklahoma
4
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
5
Stanford
Boise State
6
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
7
South Carolina
Stanford
8
Florida State
Clemson
9
Texas A+M
Oregon
10
Virginia Tech
Arkansas

·         Big second half games with BCS Title implications
o   I’ve compiled a list of the biggest games remaining in college football, all that will have an impact on who plays in the BCS Championship game in New Orleans. They’re listed by date, not by significance.
§  10/15: #7 Oregon Vs #13 Arizona State
§  10/29: #12 Georgia Tech Vs #8 Clemson
§  10/29: #20 Kansas State Vs #4 Oklahoma
§  11/5: #5 Oklahoma State Vs #20 Kansas State
§  11/5: #2 Alabama Vs #1 LSU
§  11/10: #12 Georgia Tech Vs #23 Virginia Tech
§  11/12: #18 Illinois Vs #9 Michigan
§  11/12: #6 Stanford Vs #7 Oregon
§  11/19: #9 Michigan Vs #16 Nebraska
§  11/19: #18 Illinois Vs #3 Wisconsin
§  11/25: #1 LSU Vs #10 Arkansas
§  11/26: #14 South Carolina Vs #8 Clemson
§  12/3: #5 Oklahoma State Vs #4 Oklahoma

·         BCS Predictions (Revised, of course)

o   Fiesta Bowl
§  Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) Vs West Virginia (Big East Champ)
o   Orange Bowl
§  Clemson (ACC Champ) Vs Boise State (At-Large)
o   Sugar Bowl
§  LSU (At-Large) Vs Stanford (At-Large)
o   Rose Bowl
§  Oregon (Pac 12 Champ) Vs Nebraska (At-Large)
o   BCS National Championship Game
§  Alabama (SEC Champ) Vs Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ)


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